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. 2025 Aug 25;32(11):1001-1015.
doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwae281.

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050

Bryan Chong  1 , Jayanth Jayabaskaran  1 , Silingga Metta Jauhari  2   3 , Siew Pang Chan  1   2   3 , Rachel Goh  1 , Martin Tze Wah Kueh  4   5 , Henry Li  6 , Yip Han Chin  7 , Gwyneth Kong  7 , Vickram Vijay Anand  8 , Jiong-Wei Wang  9   10   11 , Mark Muthiah  1   12   13 , Vardhmaan Jain  14 , Anurag Mehta  15 , Shir Lynn Lim  1   3   16 , Roger Foo  1   3 , Gemma A Figtree  17 , Stephen J Nicholls  18 , Mamas A Mamas  19 , James L Januzzi  20 , Nicholas W S Chew  1   3 , A Mark Richards  21   22 , Mark Y Chan  1   3
Affiliations

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050

Bryan Chong et al. Eur J Prev Cardiol. .

Abstract

Aims: The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050.

Methods and results: Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population).

Conclusion: In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases.

Registration: Not applicable.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease; Disability-adjusted life years; Global burden; Mortality.

Plain language summary

The global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is expected to rise in the next few decades, driven primarily by an ageing populace worldwide.When standardized by age and population, CVD prevalence is expected to remain relatively constant, while mortality is expected to fall. This suggests that the effects of primary prevention efforts are set to remain roughly constant, while worldwide treatment outcomes are anticipated to improve.High blood pressures, dietary risks, and high cholesterol are the predominant risk factors expected to drive cardiovascular diseases from 2025 to 2050. A high body-mass index is likely to see a rapid rise in certain regions. Effective region-specific interventions are vital to arrest the CVD trajectory.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: M.Y.C. receives speaker’s fees and research grants from Astra Zeneca, Abbott Technologies and Boston Scientific. M.Y.C receives salary support from a National Medical Research Council Clinician Scientist Award-Senior Category (MOH-000280-00). N.W.S.C. has received research grant support from NUHS Seed Fund, National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Academic Fellowship Scheme, the NUHS Clinician Scientist Program, and National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship. J.L.J. is supported by the Hutter Family Professorship; is a Trustee of the American College of Cardiology; is a board member of Imbria Pharmaceuticals; has received grant support from Abbott Diagnostics, Applied Therapeutics, Innolife, and Novartis; has received consulting income from Abbott Diagnostics, Boehringer Ingelheim, Jana Care, Janssen, Novartis, Roche Diagnostics; and participates in clinical endpoint committees/data safety monitoring boards for AbbVie, Siemens, Takeda, and Vifor. A.M.R. holds the New Zealand Heart Foundation Chair of cardiovascular Studies; and has received advisory board fees and/or grant support from Roche Diagnostics, Novo Nordisk, Abbott Laboratories, Thermo Fisher, Medtronic, Sphingotec, Novartis and Astra Zeneca. The remaining authors have nothing to disclose.

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