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. 2024 Sep 8;13(17):2525.
doi: 10.3390/plants13172525.

Soybean Yield Simulation and Sustainability Assessment Based on the DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean Model

Lei Zhang  1 , Zhenxi Cao  1   2   3 , Yang Gao  1   3   4 , Weixiong Huang  5 , Zhuanyun Si  4 , Yuanhang Guo  1 , Hongbo Wang  1   2   3 , Xingpeng Wang  1   2   3   6
Affiliations

Soybean Yield Simulation and Sustainability Assessment Based on the DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean Model

Lei Zhang et al. Plants (Basel). .

Abstract

In order to ensure national grain and oil security, it is imperative to expand the soybean planting area in the Xinjiang region. However, the scarcity of water resources in southern Xinjiang, the relatively backward soybean planting technology, and the lack of a supporting irrigation system have negatively impacted soybean planting and yield. In 2022 and 2023, we conducted an experiment which included three irrigation amounts of 27 mm, 36 mm, and 45 mm and analyzed the changes in dry mass and yield. Additionally, we simulated the potential yield using the corrected DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model and biomass based on the meteorological data from 1994 to 2023. The results demonstrated that the model was capable of accurately predicting soybean emergence (the relative root mean square error (nRMSE) = 0, the absolute relative error (ARE) = 0), flowering (nRMSE = 0, ARE = 2.78%), maturity (nRMSE = 0, ARE = 3.21%). The model demonstrated high levels of accuracy in predicting soybean biomass (R2 = 0.98, nRMSE = 20.50%, ARE = 20.63%), 0-80 cm soil water storage (R2 = 0.64, nRMSE = 7.78%, ARE = 3.24%), and yield (R2 = 0.81, nRMSE = 10.83%, ARE = 8.79%). The biomass of soybean plants increases with the increase in irrigation amount. The highest biomass of 63 mm is 9379.19 kg·hm-2. When the irrigation yield is 36-45 mm (p < 0.05), the maximum yield can reach 4984.73 kg·hm-2; the maximum efficiency of soybean irrigation water was 33-36 mm. In light of the impact of soybean yield and irrigation water use efficiency, the optimal irrigation amount for soybean cultivation in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be between 36 and 42 mm. The simulation results provide a theoretical foundation for soybean cultivation in southern Xinjiang.

Keywords: DSSAT model; biomass; irrigation water use efficiency; soybean; yield.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Simulated vs. measured biomass in 2022 and 2023. Note: (a,c,e) refer to the years 2022. (b,d,f) refer to the years 2023.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Simulated values of average soybean yield, average biomass, and irrigation water use efficiency from 1994 to 2023. (a) soybean above biomass. (b) soybean yield and irrigation water use efficiency. Note: T1~T14 represent the irrigation amounts of 24 to 63 mm, respectively. The lowercase letters indicate the difference in significance among treatments at the 0.05 level. The short line represents the standard deviation.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Soybean yield simulation, yield coefficients of variation, and sustainability indices from 1994 to 2023. Note: T1~T14 represent the irrigation amounts of 24 to 63 mm, respectively.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Study area.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Soybean planting pattern map.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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