The effects of weather factors on road traffic casualties: Analysis on provincial panel data of China from 2006 to 2021

Abstract

Introduction: Road traffic injuries stands as a major concern globally, as they result in significant loss of life, economic impact, and erode trust in government and societal safety. The influence of weather on road traffic safety is undeniable, impacting road conditions, individuals, and vehicles. However, the specific influence of weather on road traffic casualties has seldom been explored.

Method: This study assesses the effect of weather factors on road traffic casualties in China from 2006 to 2021. Vector error correction models (VECM) were utilized to determine the Granger causality between weather factors and covariates. Furthermore, panel autoregressive distribution lag models (ARDL) were applied to quantify the association between weather factors and road traffic casualties.

Results: The findings indicate that rainfall and temperature exert a short-term negative impact on casualty risk, which intriguingly becomes positive in the long term. A standout discovery is the significant role of health investments, which are shown to reduce casualty numbers in both the short and long-terms. In the long run, the gross domestic product significantly enhances casualties, while expressway mileage notably decreases them.

Conclusions: These results demonstrate the significant influence of weather on road traffic casualties and highlight the critical roles played by factors such as gross domestic product, health investment, and expressway mileage. The evidence presented in the study underscores the urgent need for more effective strategies to mitigate road traffic casualties. Thus, some effective measures are proposed to reduce road traffic casualties. This study is conducive to the improvement of traffic in severe weather in China and provides guidance for traffic management departments.

Keywords: ARDL model; Rainfall; Road traffic safety; Temperature.

Fig. 1

Map of the RTCs by China, 2006–2021. (Due to the temporary inability to obtain data from Taiwan, it was not included in the study).

Fig. 2

Trend of RTCs changes in provinces. 2006–2021. (The difference in the vertical spacing between Figures a and b is to better reflect the trend of casualties in different provinces).