Nowcasting and forecasting global aging and cancer burden: analysis of data from the GLOBOCAN and Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the impact of global population aging on cancer epidemiology, with a focus on the incidence and mortality rates among individuals aged 60 years and above.

Methods: We utilized open-source data, retrieving population age estimates from the United Nations Population Division website. The GLOBOCAN 2020 database provided estimates for cancer cases and deaths in 2020 and 2040, while the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database supplied estimates of new cancer cases worldwide from 2000 to 2019. Inclusion criteria considered individuals aged 60 years and over, focusing on the top five deadliest cancers. The cohort-component method was employed for population prediction, with age-specific incidence and mortality rates estimated for 2020 used to forecast the cancer burden.

Results: In 2021, the global population aged over 60 years accounted for 13.7%, with Europe/North America and Australia/New Zealand having the highest proportions. The older population is predicted to reach 19.2% by 2040. In 2020, of the 19.3 million new cancer cases worldwide, 64% occurred in individuals aged 60 and above, contributing to 71.3% of cancer-related deaths. The five most common cancer sites were the lung, colorectum, prostate, breast, and stomach. Cancer incidence and deaths are projected to rise significantly among older individuals, reaching 20.7 million new cases and 12.7 million deaths by 2040. Older age, tobacco use, dietary factors, alcohol consumption, and high body mass index (BMI) were identified as major risk factors for various cancers in this demographic.

Conclusions: This study reveals a significant rise in cancer incidence and mortality among the elderly due to global population aging. The urgency for targeted interventions in cancer prevention, screening, and treatment for older individuals is emphasized. Despite acknowledged limitations, these findings contribute valuable insights to inform strategies for managing cancer in the elderly amidst evolving demographic trends.

Keywords: Cancer burden; Disability-adjusted life years; Global aging; Public health.

Fig. 1

Proportion of the older population in different continents developed and developing countries, and countries with varying income levels in 2021 and 2040. (A) Proportion of older population in different continents. (B) Proportion of older population in developed and developing countries. (C) Proportion of older population in countries with varying income levels.*, Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand; less-developed regions excluding China.

Fig. 2

Trend of cancer incidence in different age groups and the top five cancer types. (A) Incidence trends of all cancer types across different age groups. (B) Incidence trends of lung cancer across different age groups. (C) Incidence trends of Breast Cancer across different age groups. (D) Incidence trends of colorectal cancer across different age groups. (E) Incidence trends of liver cancer across different age groups. (F) Incidence trends of stomach cancer across different age groups.

Fig. 3

Comparison between the proportion of people with cancer and the world population aged ≥60 years. (A-F) Comparative analysis the prevalence of all cancers (A), lung cancers (B), breast cancers (C), colorectum cancers (D), liver cancers (E), stomach cancers (F) in people aged 60 years or older versus the global population.

Fig. 4

Ranking of absolute deaths due to cancer compared to other causes by age group in 2019. CI, confidence interval; NA, not available.

Fig. 5

Comparison of the proportion of risk factors among all age groups (A) and the 60–89 years-age group (B) by cancer type in the world in 2019. BMI, body mass index.

Fig. 6

Proportion of cancer incidence in people above 60 years in the world and regions with different income levels. (A) Cancer incidence rates among individuals above 60 years in worldwide. (B) Cancer incidence rates among individuals above 60 years in regions with high income levels. (C) Cancer incidence rates among individuals above 60 years in regions with upper middle income levels. (D) Cancer incidence rates among individuals above 60 years in regions with lower middle income. (E) Cancer incidence rates among individuals above 60 years in regions with low income.

Fig. 7

Estimated new cases and deaths of older people with cancer in 2040. (A) Visualization of estimated cancer incidence among the elderly in 2020 and 2040. (B) Visualization of estimated cancer-related deaths among the elderly in 2020 and 2040. (C) Estimated new cases of older people with cancer in 2040. (D) Estimated deaths of older people with cancer in 2040. M, million. *, lung cancer included trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer; ^⁎⁎, liver cancer included liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer.