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. 2024 Sep 18;4(9):e0003702.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003702. eCollection 2024.

Projected impact of fast-tracking of anti-retroviral treatment coverage on vertical transmission of HIV in India

Pradeep Kumar  1 , Chinmoyee Das  1 , Subrata Biswas  1 , Nidhi Priyam  1 , Lalit Singh Kharayat  1 , Damodar Sahu  2 , Sanjay K Rai  3 , Sheela V Godbole  4 , Elangovan Arumugam  5 , P V M Lakshmi  6 , Shanta Dutta  7 , H Sanayaima Devi  8 , Arvind Pandey  2   9 , Dandu Chandra Sekhar Reddy  10 , Sanjay Mehendale  9   11 , Shobini Rajan  1
Affiliations

Projected impact of fast-tracking of anti-retroviral treatment coverage on vertical transmission of HIV in India

Pradeep Kumar et al. PLOS Glob Public Health. .

Abstract

One of the five high-level goals under Phase V of the National AIDS and STD Control Programme (NACP) of the Government of India is the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of maintaining and enhancing the anti-retroviral treatment under the NACP in terms of averting new infections and vertical transmission rates vis-à-vis no intervention scenario. We used India's HIV Estimates 2022 models to create treatment coverage scenarios of no interventions, status quo, business as usual, on-track and fast-track scenarios from 2023 to 2030. Our analysis indicates that fast-tracking scale-up of treatment services would avert almost 41000 child infections from 2023 to 2030 leading to a vertical transmission rate of around 7.70% in 2030 vis-a-vis no interventions scenario. Higher and sustained ART coverage would not only take the country closer to the elimination goals but would also prevent thousands of vertical transmissions, thus bringing a lot of benefits to HIV-positive pregnant women and their families. Supported by efforts for the prevention of new infections in the general population, India is on track for the attainment of elimination of vertical transmission of HIV by 2030.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Summary of calculation for estimation of vertical transmission of HIV in Spectrum.
Fig 2
Fig 2. New infections and vertical transmission rate by scenarios.
Fig 3
Fig 3. New HIV infections through vertical transmission in different scenarios.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Cumulative number of new HIV infections through vertical transmission and infections averted between 2023 and 2030 in different scenarios.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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