The influence of specific weather types on stroke occurrence: an analysis of 23,000 patients from Augsburg, Germany

Abstract

For the first time, the relationships between large-scale weather types and local stroke events in the urban area of Augsburg, Germany are analyzed. Over 23,000 stroke cases (2006 - 2020) were standardized to account for long-term trends and seasonality. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, a composite analysis identified stroke-related atmospheric variables, while seasonal weather types were classified via the neural network algorithm of self-organizing maps. Cyclonic westerlies during the cold season, which transport warm air masses from the Atlantic Ocean to Germany, were a major risk factor for ischemic stroke, while colder easterly conditions reduced stroke incidence. In the warm season, both anticyclonic conditions and westerly/northerly air advection, leading to slightly warmer or distinctly colder temperatures, were linked to increased ischemic stroke risk. Additionally, hemorrhagic strokes in the cold season were triggered by weather conditions contrary to those associated with ischemic strokes and transitory ischemic attacks.

Keywords: composite analysis; hemorrhagic stroke; ischemic stroke; synoptic climatology; weather type classification.