Age-specific all-cause mortality trends in the UK: Pre-pandemic increases and the complex impact of COVID-19

Abstract

Objectives: This study aims to analyse age-specific all-cause mortality trends in the UK before and after COVID-19 emergence to determine if pre-pandemic trends contributed to increased mortality levels in the post-pandemic era.

Study design: Statistical analysis of UK mortality data.

Methods: We utilised age-structured population and mortality data for all UK countries from 2005 to 2023. Mortality rates were calculated for each age group, and excess mortality was estimated using the Office for National Statistics (ONS) method.

Results: Our most concerning finding is an increase in all-cause mortality rates for middle-aged adults (30-54 years) starting around 2012. The COVID-19 pandemic may have further impacted these rates, but the pre-existing upward trend suggests that current elevated mortality rates might have been reached regardless of the pandemic. This finding is more alarming than the slowdown in the decline of cardiovascular disease death rates for individuals under 75 noted by the British Heart Foundation.

Conclusion: Our results highlight the importance of considering both immediate pandemic impacts and long-term mortality trends in public health strategies. This underscores the need for targeted interventions and improved healthcare planning to address both ongoing and future challenges.

Keywords: Age-specific mortality; COVID-19 pandemic; Excess mortality; Mortality rates; Public health; UK mortality trends.