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Review
. 2024 Aug 23;27(9):110653.
doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110653. eCollection 2024 Sep 20.

Monitoring flood risk evolution: A systematic review

Nele Rindsfüser  1   2 , Andreas Paul Zischg  1   2 , Margreth Keiler  3   4
Affiliations
Review

Monitoring flood risk evolution: A systematic review

Nele Rindsfüser et al. iScience. .

Abstract

Land-use change, climate change, human interventions, and socio-economic developments influence the evolution of the risk components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and consequently of flood risk. Adaptive flood risk management is a way to cope with evolving risks, but it requires measuring the evolution of risks. To develop principles of flood risk monitoring, we systematically reviewed scientific literature on flood risk evolution analyses. The reviewed publications indicate a wide spread in increase or decrease of flood risk evolution over decades. Furthermore, the publications show a high diversity in factors and methods for flood risk evolution analysis and indicate the main challenges for developing flood risk monitoring. Flood risk monitoring needs the systematic detection of flood risk evolution by periodically (re)evaluate the factors that influence the risk components-hazard, exposure and vulnerability-modeling those risk components and combining them to quantify flood risk.

Keywords: Earth sciences; environmental policy; natural sciences.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Figure 1
Figure 1
Experimental procedure systematic review
Figure 2
Figure 2
Illustration of past risk evolution The risk analysis combines the three risk components (H=hazard, E=exposure, V=vulnerability). Each component (H, E, V) has its own evolution over time. The repeated risk analysis over several time steps detects an increase or decrease of risk in past, and therefore risk evolution.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Illustration of future risk evolution The evolution of all three risk components (H=hazard, E= exposure, V=vulnerability) in the future can be analyzed using several future scenarios. As in the past, the possible risk evolution can be projected while analyzing risk for several time steps. Comparing the periods reveals trends in risk evolution.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Principles of risk analysis Several monitored factors are used to model each of the risk components (H=hazard, E=exposure, V=vulnerability). The risk components are combined to quantify risk (R).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Principles of risk monitoring Systematic detection of risk evolution (ΔR) by periodically (t = t0, t = t1) measuring the factors influencing the risk components hazard (H), exposure (E), and vulnerability (V), modeling the risk components and combining them to quantify risk.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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