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. 2024 Sep 10:12:1408316.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1408316. eCollection 2024.

Tracking multidrug resistant tuberculosis: a 30-year analysis of global, regional, and national trends

Hui-Wen Song #  1   2   3 , Jian-Hua Tian #  1 , Hui-Ping Song #  1 , Si-Jie Guo  1   2 , Ye-Hong Lin  1   2 , Jin-Shui Pan  3   4   5
Affiliations

Tracking multidrug resistant tuberculosis: a 30-year analysis of global, regional, and national trends

Hui-Wen Song et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Objectives: To provide valuable insights for targeted interventions and resource allocation, our analysis delved into the multifaceted burden, trends, risks, and projections of multi drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

Methods: This research employed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 dataset, which used a comparative risk assessment to quantify the disease burden resulting from risk factors. Initially, this database was utilized to extract details concerning the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and the number of individuals afflicted by MDR-TB. Subsequently, regression analyses were conducted using the Joinpoint program to figure average annual percent change (AAPC) to ascertain the trend. Thirdly, the age-period-cohort model (APCM) was adopted to analyze evolutions in incidence and mortality. Finally, utilizing the Nordpred model within R software, we projected the incidence and mortality of MDR-TB from 2020 to 2030.

Results: MDR-TB remained a pressing global health concern in regions with lower socio-demographic indexes (SDI), where the AAPC in DALYs topped 7% from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the cumulative DALYs attributed to MDR-TB tallied up to 4.2 million, with India, the Russian Federation, and China bearing the brunt. Notably, the incidence rates have shown a steadfast presence over the past decade, and a troubling forecast predicts an uptick in these areas from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the risk of contracting MDR-TB grew with advancing age, manifesting most acutely among men aged 40+ in lower SDI regions. Strikingly, alcohol consumption had been identified as a significant contributor, surpassing the impacts of smoking and high fasting plasma glucose, leading to 0.7 million DALYs in 2019.

Conclusions: A robust strategy is needed to end tuberculosis (TB) by 2030, especially in lower SDI areas.

Keywords: disability-adjusted life years; global burden of disease; incidence; multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; socio-demographic index.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Number and age-standardized rates of incidence from MDR-TB among HIV-negative individuals in 204 countries and territories, 2019. (A) Number of new cases of MDR-TB across all ages. (B) Age-standardized incidence rates of MDR-TB.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age-specific distribution of DALYs resulting from alcohol consumption at the GBD level 2 causes in 1990 and 2019, categorized by sex. (A) Age-specific distribution of DALYs. (B) Age-specific DALYs rate.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trends in ASDR for MDR-TB in HIV-negative populations ascribable to alcohol consumption, differentiated by sex and SDI, 1990–2019. (A) Trends in ASDR, by sex. (B) Trends in ASDR, by SDI.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Age-period-cohort effect on the relative risk of MDR-TB among HIV-free populations, stratified by SDI. (A) Age effect. (B) Period effect. (C) Cohort effect.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Projected incidence of MDR-TB from 2020 to 2030 using the Nordpred model. (A) Projected incidence rates and numbers, by sex. (B) Projected incidence rates and numbers, by SDI.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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