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Observational Study
. 2024 Sep 27;24(1):1049.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-024-09861-5.

Association between humoral serological markers levels and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection after the primary COVID-19 vaccine course among ANRS0001S COV-POPART cohort participants

Mathieu Chalouni  1 , Paul Loubet  2 , Edouard Lhomme  1   3   4 , Laetitia Ninove  5 , Benoit Barrou  6 , Jean-Yves Blay  7 , Maryvonne Hourmant  8 , Jérome de Seze  9 , Martine Laville  10   11 , Bruno Laviolle  12 , Jean-Daniel Lelièvre  13 , Jacques Morel  14 , Stéphanie Nguyen Quoc  15 , Jean-Philippe Spano  16 , Benjamin Terrier  17 , Anne Thiebaut  18 , Jean-Francois Viallard  19 , François Vrtovsnik  20 , Sophie Circosta  21 , Aude Barquin  1 , Mariam Gharib  22 , Eric Tartour  23 , Béatrice Parfait  24 , Rodolphe Thiébaut  1   3   4 , Laurence Meyer  25 , Xavier de Lamballerie  5 , Odile Launay  2   26 , Linda Wittkop  27   28   29 ; ANRS0001S COV-POPART study group
Affiliations
Observational Study

Association between humoral serological markers levels and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection after the primary COVID-19 vaccine course among ANRS0001S COV-POPART cohort participants

Mathieu Chalouni et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: We assessed the prognostic value of serological humoral markers measured one month after the last dose of the primary COVID-19 vaccine course for predicting the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 infection over the following six months in specific populations.

Methods: ANRS0001SCOV-POPART is a French nationwide multicenter prospective observational cohort study assessing the immune response to Covid-19 vaccines routinely administered to 11 subgroups of patients with chronic disease and a control group. Participants from the ANRS0001S COV-POPART were included if they received at least two doses of Covid-19 vaccine for the primary vaccine course, had measurements of anti-Spike, anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG-specific or neutralizing antibodies one month after the end of the primary vaccine course, without being infected by SARS-CoV-2 before the measurement. SARS-CoV-2 infections defined by a positive PCR/antigenic test or seroconversion to detectable anti nucleocapsid antibodies were evaluated until the first COVID-19 booster injection. Cox proportional hazards models taking into account interval-censored data were implemented to estimate the association between each antibody level and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Predictive performances were evaluated by the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

Results: Two thousand five hundred seventy adults from a specific population and 1,123 from the control group were included. The cumulative probabilities of SARS-CoV-2 infections at five months after serological measurement were 6.0% 95% confidence interval: [5.0; 7.9] and 10.1% 95% confidence interval: [8.3; 11.9], respectively. Higher levels of anti-Spike IgG antibody were associated with a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the control group, but not in the specific populations. Among the specific populations, AUROC were 74.5%, 74.9%, and 72.4% for anti-Spike IgG, anti-RBD IgG, and neutralizing antibodies, respectively. AUROC were superior in the specific populations, 82.0%, 81.2%, and 81.4% for anti-Spike IgG, anti-RBD IgG, and neutralizing antibodies, respectively.

Conclusions: Vaccine-induced antibody response after the primary course of Covid-19 infection only moderately discriminated between participants developing a SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron wave.

Trial registration: NCT04824651 (first posted: 2021-04-01).

Keywords: Prediction; SARS-CoV-2; Specific populations; Vaccine.

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Conflict of interest statement

PL has received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Astrazeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Pfizer, Sanofi Pasteur and Support for attending meetings and/or travel from Pfizer, Sanofi Pasteur. JM has received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Abbvie, Biogen, BMS, Boerhinger Ingelheim, Galapagos, GSK, Fresenius Kabi, Lilly, Mylan, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi and grants outside the submitted work from Lilly, Novartis. JPS has received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Pfizer and Astrazeneca. OL has received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Sanofi Pasteur; Pfizer, Janssen and, non-financial support from Sanofi Pasteur; Pfizer, Janssen, GlaxoSmithKline and grant from GlaxoSmithKline. The other authors declare having no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flowchart of the participants from the ANRS0001S COV-POPART cohort included in the study
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Cumulative probabilities of SARS-CoV-2 infections from one month after the primary vaccine course according to the terciles of antibodies values in participants from the ANRS0001S COV-POPART cohort P-values presented are from the log-rank tests for the global effect of antibodies categorized by terciles
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Association between antibody values and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections after the primary vaccine course in participants of the ANRS0001S COV-POPART cohort study Models were adjusted on age, sex, BMI, number of doses and number of other morbidities and stratified by month of the last received injection during the primary vaccine course and the specific population in specific populations and age, sex and BMI in the control group. Dark line is the Hazard Ratio (HR) estimated by a Cox proportional hazards model and area between the dashed lines is the 95% confidence of the HR. The antibody value associated with the median probability of predicted events by the model served as the reference for estimating the HR. Values associated with the median probability were: 1470 BAU/mL,1687 IU/mL, and 640 titers in specific populations, and 2033 BAU/mL, 1524 IU/mL, and 320 titers in the control group, respectively. P-values of the associations: 0.15, 0.22, and 0.85 for anti-Spike IgG, RBD, and neutralizing antibody levels in specific populations, and 0.01, 0.17, and 0.09, respectively in the control group. Control group: participants not from specific populations
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