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. 2024 Sep 27;24(1):2639.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-19897-6.

The global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to diet low in fiber among people aged 60 years and older, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study

Jia-Jie Lv  1   2 , Lin-Jie Zhang  1 , Zhuoma Yixi  1 , Yi-Chi Zhang  3 , Xin-Yu Li  1   3 , Cheng-Hao Yang  4   5 , Ming-Liang Wang  6
Affiliations

The global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to diet low in fiber among people aged 60 years and older, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study

Jia-Jie Lv et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019.

Methods: We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect).

Results: From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85-89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015-2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women.

Conclusions: Low dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades.

Keywords: Age-period-cohort models; Cardiovascular disease; Disability-adjusted life years; GBD; Global burden of disease; Mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 (A) trends in deaths; (B) Mortality trends; (C) Trends in DALY cases; (D) Trends in DALY rates
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Global burden of disease of CVD attributed to low dietary fiber in 204 countries and territories (A) mortality from CVD; (B) ASMR of CVD; (C) DALY rate of CVD; (D) ASDR of CVD
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
(A) the association between age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality and socio-demographic indices; (B) association between age-standardized DALY rate of cardiovascular disease and socio-demographic index
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Local drift of CVD in the world and in each SDI region from 1990 to 2019. (a) Mortality; (b)DALY
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Future Forecasts of GBD in cardiovascular diseases. (A)Trend of mortality; (B) Trend of DALY rate
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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