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. 2024 Sep 11;12(9):1874.
doi: 10.3390/microorganisms12091874.

Update of the Genetic Variability of Monkeypox Virus Clade IIb Lineage B.1

Fabio Scarpa  1 , Ilenia Azzena  2 , Alessandra Ciccozzi  1 , Francesco Branda  3 , Chiara Locci  1   2 , Maria Perra  1 , Noemi Pascale  2   4 , Chiara Romano  3 , Giancarlo Ceccarelli  5 , Giuseppe Terrazzano  6 , Pier Luigi Fiori  1   7 , Massimo Ciccozzi  3 , Marco Casu  2 , Daria Sanna  1
Affiliations

Update of the Genetic Variability of Monkeypox Virus Clade IIb Lineage B.1

Fabio Scarpa et al. Microorganisms. .

Abstract

From 1 January 2022 to 31 May 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 97,745 laboratory-confirmed Mpox cases, including 203 deaths, across 116 countries. Despite a 2.3% decrease in new cases in May 2024 compared to April 2024, significant regional variations persist. The African Region reported the highest proportion of new cases, while other regions experienced mixed trends. Phylogenomic analyses of the Mpox virus Clade IIb lineage B.1 reveal stable genetic variability with minimal diversification. The Bayesian Skyline Plot indicates a generally stable viral population size with a modest peak in late 2023, followed by a decline. In general, the data indicate that the MPXV outbreak is primarily localized within a few consistent geographic clusters. The virus's evolution is relatively slow, as indicated by its stable genetic variability, and Clade IIb lineage B.1 does not currently show signs of rapid genetic changes or population growth. The current low level of genetic diversity should not lead to complacency. Ongoing genomic surveillance is essential for effective outbreak management and understanding. This monitoring is crucial for identifying any shifts in the virus's behavior or transmission, allowing for prompt public health responses and adjustments. In addition, continued vigilance is necessary to detect any new variants that might influence the outbreak's trajectory.

Keywords: clade IIb; genetics; genome-based surveillance; lineage B.1; molecular epidemiology; monkeypox; phylodynamic; phylogeny; zoonotic disease.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Highlights of all clades and lineages of MPXV collected between June 22 and July 2024 in the time-scaled phylogenetic tree constructed with 3822 complete genomes (last updated 31 July 2024. (A) Terminals labeled according to the GISAID Clade of belonging. (B) Terminals labeled according to the country of origin. The figure has been edited using the software GIMP 2.8 (available at https://www.gimp.org/downloads/oldstable/, accessed on 7 August 2024).
Figure 2
Figure 2
(A) Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) for the MPXV Clade IIb lineages B.1. This plot shows the genetic variability and thus the effective viral population size (y-axis) over time (x-axis). (B) Lineages Through Times (LTT). The number of lineages (y-axis) is displayed as a function of time (x-axis). Thin lines represent the 95% high posterior density (HPD) interval.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trend of confirmed cases of Mpox in the six WHO regions from January 2022 to June 2024. For details on the exact number of cases, see Table 1.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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