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. 2024 Sep 19:15:1430576.
doi: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1430576. eCollection 2024.

Reconstructing the biological invasion of noxious invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus and invasion risk assessment in China

Huisen Zheng  1 , Xinjie Mao  1 , Yi Lin  1 , Keyi Fu  1 , Zanyi Qi  1 , Yongbin Wu  1
Affiliations

Reconstructing the biological invasion of noxious invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus and invasion risk assessment in China

Huisen Zheng et al. Front Plant Sci. .

Abstract

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) present a severe threat to native ecosystems and biodiversity. Comprehending the potential distribution patterns of these plant invaders and their responses to climate change is essential. Parthenium hysterophorus, native to the Americas, has become an aggressively invasive species since its introduction to China in the 1930s. This study aims to collect and reconstruct the historical occurrence and invasion of P. hysterophorus. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the potential geographical distributions of P. hysterophorus were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), and the invasion risk of P. hysterophorus in Chinese cities, croplands, forests, and grasslands was assessed. The results show that: (1) The species initially invaded highly suitable areas and further spread to regions with non-analogous climate conditions. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the overall potential distribution of P. hysterophorus is characterized by more in the southeast and less in the northwest. Climate variables, including mean annual temperature (bio1), precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), isothermality (bio3), and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the primary factors influencing its distribution. (3) The potential distribution of P. hysterophorus will expand further under future climate scenarios, particularly toward higher latitudes. (4) Forests and crop lands are the areas with the most serious potential invasion risk of P. hysterophorus. Therefore, we suggest that the government should strengthen the monitoring and management of P. hysterophorus to prevent its spread and protect agro-ecosystems and human habitats. Depending on the potential risk areas, measures such as quarantine, removal, and publicity should be taken to mitigate the threat of P. hysterophorus invasion and to raise awareness of P. hysterophorus invasion prevention.

Keywords: Asteraceae; MAXENT model; climate change; dispersal routes; potential suitable area.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The reviewer YC declared a past co-authorship with the author YW to the handling editor.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Screened geographical distribution of P. hysterophorus in the world.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The dispersal pattern of P. hysterophorus during the biological invasion in China.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Potential distribution pattern of P. hysterophorus under current climate.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Significant environmental variables, including bio1 (A), bio13 (B), bio3 (C) and bio4 (D).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Potential distribution of P. hysterophorus under nine different future climatic conditions.
Figure 6
Figure 6
The distribution areas of P. hysterophorus under nine different future climatic conditions.
Figure 7
Figure 7
The change of potential suitable area of P. hysterophorus under different climate change scenarios in China.
Figure 8
Figure 8
The distribution centers of P. hysterophorus under current nine future climatic conditions.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Area of forest, cropland, city’s land, and grassland at risk of invasion by P. hysterophorus in China.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Distribution of cropland (A), forest (B), grassland (C), and city’s lands (D) at risk of invasion by P. hysterophorus in China.
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