Public health impact and return on investment of the pediatric National Immunization Program in Italy

Abstract

Objectives: We conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the pediatric National Immunization Program (NIP) in Italy.

Methods: An economic model evaluated the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of the Italian pediatric NIP, including 10 pathogens for mandatory vaccines and 4 pathogens for recommended vaccines for children aged 0-10 years from the healthcare-sector and societal perspectives. Separate decision trees were used to model each vaccine-preventable disease (VPD). The 2020 birth cohort (n = 420,084) was followed over their lifetime; the model projected and compared discounted disease cases, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs (2021 euros) with and without immunization (based on current and pre - vaccine era disease incidence estimates, respectively).

Results: The pediatric NIP was estimated to prevent 1.8 million cases of VPDs and 3,330 deaths, resulting in 45,900 fewer life-years lost and 57,000 fewer QALYs lost. Vaccination costs of €285 million were offset by disease cost savings of €1.6 billion, resulting in a BCR of 5.6 from a societal perspective (BCR = 1.7 from a healthcare-sector perspective). When QALYs gained were valued, the BCR increased to 15.6.

Conclusions: The benefits of the Italian pediatric NIP, including averted disease-related morbidity, mortality, and associated costs, highlight the value of continued investment in pediatric immunization.

Keywords: benefit–cost ratio; children; cost-benefit analysis; economic analysis; infectious disease; mathematical model; prevention; vaccination.