Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic underlined the need for pandemic planning but also brought into focus the use of mathematical modelling to support public health decisions. The types of models needed (compartment, agent-based, importation) are described. Best practices regarding biological realism (including the need for multidisciplinary expert advisors to modellers), model complexity, consideration of uncertainty and communications to decision-makers and the public are outlined.

Methods: A narrative review was developed from the experiences of COVID-19 by members of the Public Health Agency of Canada External Modelling Network for Infectious Diseases (PHAC EMN-ID), a national community of practice on mathematical modelling of infectious diseases for public health.

Results: Modelling can best support pandemic preparedness in two ways: 1) by modelling to support decisions on resource needs for likely future pandemics by estimating numbers of infections, hospitalized cases and cases needing intensive care, associated with epidemics of "hypothetical-yet-plausible" pandemic pathogens in Canada; and 2) by having ready-to-go modelling methods that can be readily adapted to the features of an emerging pandemic pathogen and used for long-range forecasting of the epidemic in Canada, as well as to explore scenarios to support public health decisions on the use of interventions.

Conclusion: There is a need for modelling expertise within public health organizations in Canada, linked to modellers in academia in a community of practice, within which relationships built outside of times of crisis can be applied to enhance modelling during public health emergencies. Key challenges to modelling for pandemic preparedness include the availability of linked public health, hospital and genomic data in Canada.

Keywords: COVID-19; infectious diseases; mathematical modelling; pandemic preparedness.

Figure 1

Adding complexity to a simple Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to realistically model public health interventions^a Abbreviations: ICU, intensive care unit; NPIs, non-pharmaceutical interventions; VOC, variant of concern ^a The left hand diagram shows the structure of a simple Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, next to which are examples of the factors that had to be introduced to realistically model COVID-19 transmission with emerging VOCs, and the use of NPIs and vaccinations, resulting in a complex model structure (right-hand diagram). In this case, the complex model is the Public Health Agency of Canada agent-based model, as described, in an earlier form, in Ng et al., 2020 ((30))