Non-invasive fibrosis markers are useful in predicting the presence of varices in compensated cirrhosis and variceal bleeding in decompensated cirrhosis

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of non-invasive fibrosis markers in predicting varices in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients and variceal bleeding in decompensated cirrhotic patients. Between 1 July 2020-2021, 137 newly diagnosed cirrhosis patients (67 females/70 males; mean age: 53.35) were included in the study. The diagnosis of cirrhosis was made based on clinical, laboratory, imaging, and, if available, biopsy findings. Laboratory and clinical parameters, including lysyl oxidase-like protein 2 (LOXL2), were recorded for all patients. Commonly used noninvasive fibrosis scores were calculated, and endoscopies were performed to assess varices. All patients were followed up for 12 months, and variceal bleeding events were recorded. Parameters that could predict the presence of varices and variceal bleeding were identified using appropriate statistical methods. Out of the 137 cirrhotic patients, 55 were in the compensated stage and 82 were in the decompensated stage. Varices were detected in 36 (65%) of the compensated cirrhotic patients. It was found that a variceal score derived from spleen size and the ELF score could be used to predict varices (AUC: 0.83). Variceal bleeding developed in 26 (31%) of the patients with decompensated cirrhosis. It was determined that a scoring system derived from albumin, spleen size, LOXL2 level, and the Lok index could be used to predict variceal bleeding in this patient group (AUC: 0.845). This study demonstrates that, besides device-dependent examinations, non-invasive fibrosis scores and various serum parameters can predict varices and variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients.

Keywords: cirrhosis; non-invasive fibrosis markers; varice prediction; variceal bleeding.