A seroprevalence study indicates a high proportion of clinically undiagnosed MPXV infections in men who have sex with men in Berlin, Germany

Abstract

Introduction: During the mpox outbreak in 2022, the highest number of cases in Germany were registered in Berlin, almost all of them in men who have sex with men (MSM). However, the frequency of clinically undiagnosed infections is unknown.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among MSM in Berlin, Germany. Participants were recruited from private practices and community-based checkpoints specialised in HIV and STI care for MSM. They were asked to complete an online questionnaire on socio-demographic data, mpox diagnosis, vaccination history and sexual behaviour, and to provide a blood sample for serological analysis. The samples were tested for antibodies against a range of antigens to distinguish between antibodies induced by mpox infection and MVA vaccination, with pre-immune sera from childhood smallpox vaccination as a confounding factor. Associations of behavioural variables with reported and suspected mpox diagnosis as the outcome were tested using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models.

Results: Between the 11th April and 1st July 2023, 1,119 participants were recruited in eight private practices and two community-based checkpoints in Berlin. All participants provided a blood sample for serological testing. Information for the online questionnaire was provided by 728 participants; core data on age and mpox history for participants who did not provide questionnaire data were provided by the practices for an additional 218 participants. A previous diagnosis of mpox was reported for/by 70 participants (7.4%). Using a conservative and strict case definition, we serologically identified an additional 91 individuals with suspected undiagnosed mpox infection. Individuals with reported or suspected mpox infections reported more condomless anal sex partners in the past 3 months (OR = 5.93; 95% CI 2.10-18.35 for 5-10 partners; OR = 9.53; 95% CI 2.72-37.54 for > 10 partners) and were more likely to report sexual contact with partners diagnosed with mpox (OR = 2.87; 95% CI 1.39-5.84).

Conclusion: A substantial proportion of mpox infections were clinically undiagnosed. The number of condomless anal sex partners was strongly associated with both confirmed and suspected undiagnosed mpox infection. Therefore, mpox control measures based on clinical diagnosis of mpox are likely to have limited effectiveness in preventing mpox transmission in outbreak situations because many infections remain unrecognised and undiagnosed.

Keywords: ATI-N antibodies; MVA vaccination; Mpox; men having sex with men; orthopoxvirus antibodies; seroprevalence study.

Fig. 1

Notified mpox cases and first shot MVA vaccinations in Berlin, May–October, 2022