Predicting the risk of colorectal cancer among diabetes patients using a random survival forest-guided approach

Abstract

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most frequently diagnosed cancer worldwide. Diabetes and CRC share many overlapping lifestyle risk factors such as obesity, heavy alcohol use, and diet. This study aims to develop a risk scoring system for CRC prediction among diabetes patients using routine medical records.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using electronic health records of Hong Kong. Patients who received diabetes care in public general outpatient clinics between 2010 and 2019 and had no cancer history were identified, and followed up until December 2019. The outcome was diagnosis of CRC during follow-up. For model building, predictors were first selected using random survival forest, and weights were subsequently assigned to selected predictors using Cox regression.

Results: Of the 386,325 patients identified, 4,199 patients developed CRC during a median follow-up of 6.2 years. The overall incidence rate of CRC was 1.93 per 1000 person-years. In the final scoring system, age, waist-to-hip ratio, and serum creatinine were included as predictors. The C-index on test set was 0.651 (95%CI: 0.631-0.669). Elevated serum creatinine (≥127 µmol/L) could be a potential important predictor of increased CRC risk.

Conclusion: While obesity is a well-known risk factor for CRC, renal dysfunction could be potentially linked to an elevated risk of CRC among diabetes patients. Further studies are warranted to explore whether renal function could be a potential parameter to guide screening recommendation for diabetes patients.

Keywords: colorectal cancer; diabetes; random forest; risk prediction; survival analysis.

Figure 1

Kaplan-Meier colorectal cancer-free survival curves among diabetes patients on test set by risk score.