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. 2024 Oct 15;24(1):1278.
doi: 10.1186/s12885-024-13035-6.

Estimation of burden of cancer incidence and mortality in India: based on global burden of disease study 1990-2021

Diptismita Jena #  1   2 , Bijaya K Padhi #  3 , Quazi Syed Zahiruddin #  4 , Suhas Ballal  5 , Sanjay Kumar  6 , Mahakshit Bhat  7 , Shilpa Sharma  8 , M Ravi Kumar  9 , Sarvesh Rustagi  10 , Abhay M Gaidhane  11 , Ashish Gaur  12   13 , Sanjit Sah  14   15   16 , Prakasini Satapathy  17   18
Affiliations

Estimation of burden of cancer incidence and mortality in India: based on global burden of disease study 1990-2021

Diptismita Jena et al. BMC Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: Cancer poses a significant public health challenge in India, making it crucial to predict its future impact for effective healthcare planning. This study forecast cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in India from 2022 to 2031.

Methods: We extracted age-standardized data on incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We used Decadal Average Percentage Change techniques to identify trends in cancer burden over decades and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method were used for forecasting. The ARIMA (2,2,2) model was identified as the best for predicting cancer incidence, ARIMA (0,3,3) for DALYs, and ARIMA (0,2,2) for mortality.

Results: The cancer incidence rate is expected to rise from 529.40 (95% CI: 525.41-533.38) in 2022 to 549.17 (95% CI: 487.43-610.92) per 100,000 population in 2031. The DALYs rate is projected to decrease from 2001.53 (95% CI: 1964.24-2038.82) in 2022 to 1842.08 (95% CI: 1273.57-2410.60) per 100,000 population in 2031, indicating improvements in cancer burden management. Mortality rates are forecasted to increase slightly, from 71.52 (95% CI: 69.91-73.12) in 2022 to 73.00 (95% CI: 60.88-85.11) per 100,000 population in 2031. Overall, while incidence and mortality rates show a slight upward trend, the DALYs rate is projected to decrease, reflecting potential advancements in cancer management and treatment over the forecast period.

Conclusions: Over the next decade, cancer incidence and mortality are expected to increase in India, highlighting the need for enhanced prevention, early detection, and proper treatment strategies. Despite these increases, the anticipated decrease in DALYs suggests potential advancements in cancer management, warranting further investigation into the drivers of this positive trend and measures to sustain it.

Keywords: Cancer; Disability-adjusted life years; Forecast; Global burden of disease; Incidence; Mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Decadal changes in cancer burden incidence rate (incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality) across Indian states (1990–2021) for both (a), male (b) and female (c)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Cancer prevalence rate male (left) and female (right) in India for the year 2021
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Cancer incidence rate male (left) and female (right) in India for the year 2021
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Cancer DALYs rate male (left) and female (right) in India for the year 2021
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Cancer mortality rate male (left) and female (right) in India for the year 2021
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Trend of Prevalence, incidence, DALYs and mortality Rate in India from the year 1990 to 2021
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Second order difference of incidence rate (a), third order difference of DALYs (b) and second order difference of mortality rate (c) of cancer in India
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
ACF and PACF plot of cancer incidence (a), DALYs (b) and mortality rate (c) in India
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Plot for residual and p-value of Ljung-Box statistics of best fitted ARIMA models of cancer incidence ARIMA (2,2,2) (a), DALYs ARIMA (0,3,3) (b) and mortality rate ARIMA (0,2,2) (c)
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
Forecasted plot of the cancer incidence (a), DALYs (b) and mortality rate (c) for India with 95% and 80% CI
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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