Hybrid Prediction in Horticulture Crop Breeding: Progress and Challenges

Abstract

In the context of rapidly increasing population and diversified market demands, the steady improvement of yield and quality in horticultural crops has become an urgent challenge that modern breeding efforts must tackle. Heterosis, a pivotal theoretical foundation for plant breeding, facilitates the creation of superior hybrids through crossbreeding and selection among a variety of parents. However, the vast number of potential hybrids presents a significant challenge for breeders in efficiently predicting and selecting the most promising candidates. The development and refinement of effective hybrid prediction methods have long been central to research in this field. This article systematically reviews the advancements in hybrid prediction for horticultural crops, including the roles of marker-assisted breeding and genomic prediction in phenotypic forecasting. It also underscores the limitations of some predictors, like genetic distance, which do not consistently offer reliable hybrid predictions. Looking ahead, it explores the integration of phenomics with genomic prediction technologies as a means to elevate prediction accuracy within actual breeding programs.

Keywords: genomic prediction; heterosis; hybrid prediction; marker-assisted selection.

Figure 1

Common concepts of heterosis.

Figure 2

Genetic differences and prediction methods for qualitative and quantitative traits.

Figure 3

Predictors of heterosis: genetic distance and non-additive effects.