High mortality following early initiation of antiretroviral therapy in infants living with HIV from three African countries

Abstract

Background: Even with increasing access to rapid HIV diagnosis and early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, infants living with HIV seem to have adverse outcomes. We assessed the probability of death, viral suppression, and other HIV-related events in the first three years of life among early-treated children with perinatally-acquired HIV in South Africa, Mozambique, and Mali.

Methods: We enrolled a cohort of infants who initiated ART within the initial 6 months of life and within 3 months of diagnosis. These children were monitored 2, 6, 12 and 24 weeks after enrolment, followed by biannual check-ups up to 4 years after enrolment. We assessed the probability of death, viral load (VL) suppression, severe immunosuppression (according to WHO guidelines), and engagement in care using Kaplan-Meier plots, and hazard ratios for these outcomes using multivariable Cox regression models.

Findings: Two hundred and fifteen infants were enrolled and monitored for a median of 34 months [IQR, 16.3; 44.1]. ART initiation occurred at a median of 34 days of age [IQR, 26.0; 73.0]. The probability of death at 1 year of ART was 10% (95% CI, 6-14), increased to 12% (95% CI, 8-17) at 2 and remained in 12% at 3 years. The main risk factor for HIV/AIDS-related mortality was baseline viral load [HR: 2.98 (95% CI, 1.25-7.12)]. Sixty-one of 146 (42%) children achieved sustained virological control below lower limit of detection for any ≥1 year period between enrolment and 4 years after enrolment. Viral suppression during follow-up was inversely associated with baseline viral load [Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.72 (95% CI, 0.58-0.89] and adverse maternal social events [HR: 0.26 (95% CI, 0.15-0.45)]. Adherence to ART was assessed as optimal in 81% of the visits. Female sex at birth, lower age at diagnosis and maternal adverse social life events were risk factors for low adherence [Odds ratio, OR 1.25 (95% CI, 1.00-1.56); 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.27) and 2.52 (95% CI, 2.16-12.37), respectively].

Interpretation: Despite early ART, mortality remains high in infants. High baseline VL and adverse maternal social environment increased the risk of poor outcomes. Sustained supportive strategies are essential during and after pregnancy, to achieve better survival.

Funding: Early Treated Perinatally HIV Infected Individuals: Improving Children's Actual Life (EPIICAL) is a research consortium funded by ViiV Healthcare and led by Penta Foundation. The funder was not involved in the analysis and interpretation of data, writing of the report, or the decision to submit the paper for publication. The corresponding authors had access to all data and take final responsibility for the decision to submit.

Keywords: Africa; Antiretroviral therapy; Antiretroviral treatment; Children; HIV.

Fig. 1

Cohort flowchart.

Fig. 2

Mortality summary showing the causes of death and mortality according to HIV/AIDS relationship and region of recruitment.

Fig. 3

Kaplan–Meier function showing the probability of mortality. Panel A: All-cause mortality probability (larger panel: relative to 100% of the participants; smaller panel: zoom with a different scale Y-axis). Panel B: HIV-related mortality probability (larger panel: relative to 100% of the participants; smaller panel: zoom in the first part of the curve).

Fig. 4

Significant associations between risk factors and endpoints. Numbers represent the hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval).