Climate change adaptation through an integrative lens in Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract

Climate change is being felt across all human and natural systems in Aotearoa New Zealand and is projected to worsen this decade as impacts compound and cascade through natural system and sectoral dependencies. The effectiveness of adaptation is constrained by how fast greenhouse gas emissions are reduced globally, the pace of change, the frequency and progression of impacts, and the capacity of our natural, societal and political systems to respond. We explore how these systems and sectors interact with existing and projected climate change stressors by categorising climate change impacts (Trends and Events) and consequential thresholds (Thresholds), and by grouping systems and sectors by types (Typologies). This approach has identified commonalities and differences between the typologies which are illustrated with examples. Critical constraints and opportunities for adaptation have been identified to guide sector adaptation decision-making and for ongoing adaptation progress and effectiveness monitoring. Constraints are found across all sectors, and opportunities exist to address them through modelling and projections, monitoring frameworks, decision tools and measures, governance coordination and integration of the Māori worldview of the relationship between humans and nature. However, limits to adaptation exist and will increase over time unless all sectors and all nations urgently reduce their emissions.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation; built environment; complexity; governance; kaitiakitanga; monitoring; natural ecosystems; uncertainty.

Figure 1.

The pervasive impacts of climate change affect systems, sectors, and institutions and generate cascading and unanticipated (surprise) impacts. Impacts then create risks to existing institutions and systems presenting adaptation challenges. How we collectively (or individually) decide to respond to adaptation challenges can shrink the adaptation space. Importantly, ongoing climate change is simultaneously continuing to reduce the range of viable adaptation options.

Figure 2.

Generalised impact-based adaptation pathways, A trends, B events, and C thresholds that arise from trends and events (i.e. points at which the system or sector transitions into another state that may be irreversible). Each type of impact suggests the type of adaptation response (incremental or transformational) that keeps the sector or system in the adaptive space and ensures social, cultural, environmental and economic objectives are met as conditions change over time. Note that in practice trends and events interact, producing additional complexity, and that thresholds arise from both trends and events.