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Review
. 2023 Oct 19;54(4):523-546.
doi: 10.1080/03036758.2023.2267016. eCollection 2024.

Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach

Cate Macinnis-Ng  1   2 , Ilze Ziedins  1   3 , Hamza Ajmal  1   4 , W Troy Baisden  1   5   6 , Shaun Hendy  1   7   8 , Adrian McDonald  1   9 , Rebecca Priestley  1   8 , Rhian A Salmon  1   8 , Emma L Sharp  1   6 , Jonathan D Tonkin  1   10 , Sandra Velarde  1   11 , Krushil Watene Ngāti Manu Te Hikutu Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei Tonga  1   12 , William Godsoe  1   13
Affiliations
Review

Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach

Cate Macinnis-Ng et al. J R Soc N Z. .

Abstract

Many of the implications of climate change for Aotearoa (New Zealand) remain unclear. To identify so-far unseen or understudied threats and opportunities related to climate change we applied a horizon-scanning process. First, we collated 171 threats and opportunities across our diverse fields of research. We then scored each item for novelty and potential impact and finally reduced the list to ten threats and ten opportunities through a prioritisation process. Within the 20 items presented in this paper, we uncover a range of climate-related costs and benefits. Unexpected opportunities evolve from economic reorganisation and changes to perspectives. The threats we highlight include the overall failure to interconnect siloed policy responses, as well as those relating to extreme events and feedbacks, as well as pressures that undermine the coherence of society. A major theme of our work is that climate change effects in Aotearoa are likely to transgress the boundaries of research disciplines, industry sectors and policy systems, emphasising the importance of developing transdisciplinary methods and approaches. We use this insight to connect potential responses to climate change with Aotearoa's culture and geography.

Keywords: Climate change; adaptation; climate consequences; complex systems; extreme events; mitigation; transdisciplinarity.

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Conflict of interest statement

Shaun Hendy declares that he is a co-founder and employee of Toha, a New Zealand-based company that builds digital marketplaces for environmental action. Sandra J. Velarde was a staff at the New Zealand Climate Change Commission during most of the writing period. She is currently staff at WSP, an international consultancy company. Her Primary Industries team advises government and private sector on rural infrastructure, water resources, sustainable land and climate change adaptation and mitigation. All other authors do not have any conflicts of interest to declare.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Schematic diagram of horizon scanning process for our paper. Activities were divided into pre-workshop preparation, a three-day workshop and post workshop paper preparation and reflection. Scoring for ranking of items was based on a scale of 1–10 as explained in the scoring box. TPM is Te Pūnaha Matatini, the Centre for Research Excellence in Complex Systems.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Summary of opportunities and threats identified through horizon scanning. Opportunities fell into two main groups reflecting economic and social opportunities while threats fell into four groups associated with broad issues, extreme events, biological feedbacks and social implications. The groups were created by the lead authors after the top ten threats and opportunities had been identified, to provide some structure to the results and for synthesis in the discussion.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Tamaki Drive land slip after the extreme rainfall event on 27th January 2023. In this photograph, a large tree that fell onto the road had already been partially cleared. This is a major road serving the eastern bays of Auckland and it remained closed for several days.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Rita Angus, Goddess of Mercy Oil on canvas. Collection of Christchurch Art Gallery, Te Puna o Waiwhetū; Purchased 1956. The opportunities presented in response to climate change draw on deep themes in Aotearoa’s culture and geography. Many of these facets can be found in artworks such as Rita Angus’s ‘A Goddess of mercy’ (painted 1945-1947). A key element of the painting is the misfit between styles from other parts of the world (discussed in T1), this mismatch is evident in how the figure is portrayed in the style of Renaissance art with an anomalous background of Canterbury high country. The painting depicts diverse crops in the mid ground (discussed in O3 and O5). The value of soils is highlighted through the tilled field and the agricultural crops (O9). Angus is visually emphasising women as an underrepresented group in the landscape (O10). Painted at the end of World War Two, the painting highlights the opportunities to fulfil Angus’s pacifist ideals.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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