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. 2024 Oct;13(20):e70318.
doi: 10.1002/cam4.70318.

Global Trend in Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence Rates Through 2040: An Illness-Death Modeling Study

Zeinab Hesami  1   2 , Meysam Olfatifar  3 , Amir Sadeghi  4 , Mohammad Reza Zali  4 , Samira Mohammadi-Yeganeh  5   6 , Mohammad Amin Habibi  7 , Mohammad Reza Ghadir  3 , Hamidreza Houri  1
Affiliations

Global Trend in Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence Rates Through 2040: An Illness-Death Modeling Study

Zeinab Hesami et al. Cancer Med. 2024 Oct.

Erratum in

Abstract

Background: Despite remarkable progress in contemporary medical technology and enhanced survival outcomes for various cancer types, pancreatic cancer (PC) continues to stand out as a particularly deadly gastrointestinal malignancy. Given a persistent rise in both incidence and the corresponding mortality rates of PC globally, evaluations of PC burden by sex are of great importance. Here, we used the illness-death multi-state model (IDM) to forecast the prevalence of PC through the year 2040.

Methods: IDM was established based on obtainable data to predict the future prevalence of PC on global, regional, and national scales from 2019 to 2040. Analyses were also performed regarding sex and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented for all estimates.

Results: The projected prevalence rate for 2040 is anticipated to be 6.093 ([95% CI 5.47-6.786] per 100,000) worldwide, indicating a significant increase of 31.45% since 1990, and a 12.29% increase since 2019. The estimated average annual increase since 2020 was 0.5%. Considering sex differences, females are expected to have a steeper slope in prevalence rate than males. Intriguingly, when considering the percentage changes between the periods of 2019-2040 and 1990-2019 for both sexes, females exhibited 29% and 11% increase relative to males (2.6-fold greater increase).

Conclusions: By 2040, it is predicted that the prevalence of PC will increase globally, with women being at higher risk of developing the disease. Considering the percentage changes, regions with lower socioeconomic status are anticipated to face a greater risk of experiencing PC compared to other geographical areas.

Keywords: global burden of disease; illness‐death multi‐state model; pancreatic cancer; percentage changes; prevalence.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Overall forecast of global PC disease prevalence per 100,000 for male (blue lines), female (green lines), and both sexes (red lines). The halo effect observed in each scatter plot accurately represents projections that extend across the temporal span from 2019 to 2040 with 95% confidence intervals. PC, pancreatic cancer.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Regional forecast of PC prevalence per 100,000 for male (blue lines), female (green lines), and both sexes (red lines). The halo effect observed in each scatter plot accurately represents projections that extend across the temporal span from 2019 to 2040 with 95% confidence intervals. PC, pancreatic cancer.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
The lollipop plot between the two calculated percentage changes from 1990 to 2019 and 2019 to 2040 for both sexes (a) males (b) and females (c), globally and across 21 regions. Each line represents two time periods and show the change of ASPR increase or decrease during time. ASPR, age‐standardized prevalence rate; PC, pancreatic cancer.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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