Climate change and human health in Alpine environments: an interdisciplinary impact chain approach understanding today's risks to address tomorrow's challenges

Abstract

The European Alps, home to a blend of permanent residents and millions of annual tourists, are found to be particularly sensitive to climate change. This article employs the impact chain concept to explore the interplay between climate change and health in Alpine areas, offering an interdisciplinary assessment of current and future health consequences and potential adaptation strategies.Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and increasing extreme weather events have profound implications for the Alpine regions. Temperatures have risen significantly over the past century, with projections indicating further increases and more frequent heatwaves. These trends increase the risk of heat-related health issues especially for vulnerable groups, including the elderly, frail individuals, children and recreationists. Furthermore, changing precipitation patterns, glacier retreat and permafrost melting adversely impact slope stability increasing the risk of gravity-driven natural hazards like landslides, avalanches and rockfalls. This poses direct threats, elevates the risk of multi-casualty incidents and strains search and rescue teams.The environmental changes also impact Alpine flora and fauna, altering the distribution and transmission of vector-borne diseases. Such events directly impact healthcare administration and management programmes, which are already challenged by surges in tourism and ensuring access to care.In conclusion, Alpine regions must proactively address these climate change-related health risks through an interdisciplinary approach, considering both preventive and responsive adaptation strategies, which we describe in this article.

Keywords: Environmental health; Epidemiology; Health systems; Prevention strategies; Public health.

Figure 1. Impact chain for climate change-induced health consequences in the Alpine environments. Hazards, cascading potential impacts, exposure, vulnerability, external drivers and risks are respectively in blue, grey, yellow, green, pink and red boxes. All components leading to specific risks for climate change-induced health consequences are linked based on a cause-effect perspective. PTSD, post-traumatic stress disorder; SAR, search and rescue.

Figure 2. Projected changes in the number of heatwave days per year in 2071–2100 with respect to 1981–2010 based on the RCP 8.5 scenario of the EURO-CORDEX data set. Heatwaves are computed based on the EURO heat project definition. Data source: ‘Heat waves and cold spells in Europe derived from climate projections’ of Copernicus Climate Change Service. RCP, Representative Concentration Pathways.

Figure 3. July UTCI distribution (12:00–15:00 UTC) in the area of the Alpine city of Bolzano (262 m a.s.l., south-eastern Alps) from 1961 to 2020 derived from the ERA5-HEAT data set. Boxplots report the median of UTCI values with boxes extending over the 25th–75th percentile range and whiskers from 5th to 95th percentiles. Orange and red horizontal lines represent the 26°C and 32°C thresholds for moderate and strong heat stress, respectively. Data source: ‘Thermal comfort indices derived from ERA5 reanalysis’, Copernicus Climate Change Service. m a.s.l., metres above sea level; UTCI, Universal Thermal Climate Index.