Temporal Range Dynamics of the Lataste's Viper (Vipera latastei Boscá, 1878) in Doñana (Spain): Insights into Anthropogenically Driven Factors

Abstract

Doñana (southern Spain), a region of notable biodiversity richness, is highly threatened by ongoing landscape transformation and climate change. We investigated the local effect of these anthropogenic factors on the temporal range dynamics of Lataste's viper (Vipera latastei), an Iberian endemic Mediterranean reptile that has apparently become rare over the years in Doñana. Using ecological niche-based models, based on climatic and remote sensing variables, we analyzed historical (1959-1999) and contemporary (2000-2022) records of the species to assess range shifts and identify environmental factors that may influence them. Our results show that V. latastei is mostly restricted to the coastal region of Doñana and that one temperature variable is the most important factor explaining this distribution pattern in both periods. Additional climatic and vegetation variables play a role in its historical distribution, but they become less important in contemporary times, suggesting a niche simplification over time. We found 30.5% of reduction in the species suitable area from historical to contemporary conditions, a reduction that would be even greater (83.37%) in the absence of niche shift. These findings underscore the species' heightened vulnerability to ongoing environmental changes and highlight the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies.

Keywords: Iberian Peninsula; Viperidae; climate change; conservation; ecological niche models; landscape changes; niche shift.

Figure 1

(A) Location of the study area in the south west of the Iberian Peninsula. (B) The study area depicting the distribution of the records considered for the historical (black dots) and contemporary (white dots) times, Doñana national and natural parks, highways, altitude, and marshlands. (C) Histogram depicting the total and accumulative number of records per decade. A female Lataste’s viper from Doñana is included in the figure (Author: G. Martínez del Mármol).

Figure 2

Response curve profiles for the mean temperature of the driest quarter, the most important bioclimatic factor related to the historical and contemporary distributions of the Lataste’s viper in Doñana.

Figure 3

Average (top) and standard deviation (SD, bottom) for habitat suitability of the Lataste’s viper in the historical, contemporary, and projection models.

Figure 4

On the top, the historical, contemporary, and projected representation of suitable habitats for the Lataste’s viper in Doñana. On the bottom, temporal dynamics of habitat suitability for the Lataste’s viper in Doñana: (i) lost habitats represent the suitable areas that were lost in contemporary times, (ii) permanent suitable habitats refer to pixels where the species could currently occur, without considering a niche shift, (iii) underestimated suitable habitats refer to pixels where the species could currently occur, mediated by a niche shift, and (iv) gained suitable habitats refer to pixels that became suitable in contemporary times, reflecting a niche shift.