Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities

Tyler Meadows¹, Erik R Coats², Solana Narum³, Eva M Top⁴, Benjamin J Ridenhour⁵, Thibault Stalder⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA.
³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA.
⁴ Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences (IIDS), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
⁵ Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences (IIDS), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
⁶ Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences (IIDS), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; INSERM, CHU Limoges, RESINFIT, U1092, Univ. Limoges, F-87000, Limoges, France. Electronic address: thibault.stalder@unilim.fr.

PMID: 39488168
PMCID: PMC11614685 (available on 2026-01-01)
DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2024.122671

Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities

Tyler Meadows et al. Water Res. 2025.

. 2025 Jan 1;268(Pt A):122671.

doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2024.122671. Epub 2024 Oct 20.

Authors

Tyler Meadows¹, Erik R Coats², Solana Narum³, Eva M Top⁴, Benjamin J Ridenhour⁵, Thibault Stalder⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA.
³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA.
⁴ Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences (IIDS), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
⁵ Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB), Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences (IIDS), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
⁶ Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences (IIDS), University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA; INSERM, CHU Limoges, RESINFIT, U1092, Univ. Limoges, F-87000, Limoges, France. Electronic address: thibault.stalder@unilim.fr.

PMID: 39488168
PMCID: PMC11614685 (available on 2026-01-01)
DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2024.122671

Abstract

Wastewater has emerged as a crucial tool for infectious disease surveillance, offering a valuable means to bridge the equity gap between underserved communities and larger urban municipalities. However, using wastewater surveillance in a predictive manner remains a challenge. In this study, we tested if detecting SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can forecast outbreaks in rural communities. Under the CDC National Wastewater Surveillance program, we monitored the SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater of five rural communities and a small city in Idaho (USA). We then used a particle filter method coupled with a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to infer active case numbers using quantities of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. Our findings revealed that while high daily variations in wastewater viral load made real-time interpretation difficult, the SEIR model successfully factored out this noise, enabling accurate forecasts of the Omicron outbreak in five of the six towns shortly after initial increases in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations were detected in wastewater. The model predicted outbreaks with a lead time of 0 to 11 days (average of 6 days +/- 4) before the surge in reported clinical cases. This study not only underscores the viability of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) in rural communities-a demographic often overlooked in WBE research-but also demonstrates the potential of advanced epidemiological modeling to enhance the predictive power of wastewater data. Our work paves the way for more reliable and timely public health guidance, addressing a critical gap in the surveillance of infectious diseases in rural populations.

Keywords: COVID-19; Rural communities; SARS-CoV-2; SEIR; Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE).

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Update of

Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities.
Meadows T, Coats ER, Narum S, Top E, Ridenhour BJ, Stalder T. Meadows T, et al. medRxiv [Preprint]. 2024 Feb 3:2024.02.01.24302131. doi: 10.1101/2024.02.01.24302131. medRxiv. 2024. Update in: Water Res. 2025 Jan 1;268(Pt A):122671. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2024.122671. PMID: 38352372 Free PMC article. Updated. Preprint.

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Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities

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Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities

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