Long-term trends and future projections of larynx cancer burden in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 using GBD data

Abstract

Larynx cancer poses a significant public health challenge in China, with rising incidence and mortality rates over the past decades. Understanding the long-term trends and underlying factors is crucial for effective intervention and policy formulation. Data were utilized from the global burden of disease (GBD) Study 2021 to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) due to larynx cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis identified key changes in trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and decomposition analysis quantified the contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth to these trends. Our study found a significant increase in the incidence and prevalence of larynx cancer in China, particularly among males. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for males were substantially higher than those for females. Decomposition analysis revealed that aging was the primary driver of increasing incidence and mortality rates, while epidemiological changes had a mitigating effect. Joinpoint analysis identified periods of rapid urbanization and economic growth as key turning points for increased incidence. Bayesian APC models projected a continued upward trend in incidence rates up to 2030. The rising burden of larynx cancer in China underscores the need for targeted public health interventions, including smoking cessation programs, environmental pollution control, and early detection strategies. Addressing gender disparities and implementing effective prevention measures are crucial to mitigating the impact of larynx cancer in China.

Keywords: Aging; Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis; China; Disease burden; Epidemiological changes; Gender disparities; Incidence; Larynx cancer; Mortality; Prevalence.

Fig. 1

Age-specific numbers and rates of incidence, prevalence, and deaths for larynx cancer in China, 2021. (A) The number of new larynx cancer cases (incidence) by age and sex. (B) ASIR of larynx cancer by sex. (C) The number of prevalent cases of larynx cancer by age and sex. (D) ASPR of larynx cancer by sex. (E) The number of deaths due to larynx cancer by age and sex. (F) ASMR from larynx cancer by sex. ASIR age-standardized incidence rate, ASPR age-standardized prevalence rate, ASMR age-standardized mortality rate.

Fig. 2

Trends in numbers and age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs for larynx cancer in China from 1990 to 2021, by sex. (A) The number of new larynx cancer cases (incidence) and ASIR per 100,000 people by year and sex. (B) The number of prevalent cases and ASPR per 100,000 people by year and sex. (C) The number of deaths and ASMR per 100,000 people by year and sex. (D) The number of DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates per 100,000 people by year and sex. (E) The number of YLDs and age-standardized YLD rates per 100,000 people by year and sex. (F) The number of YLLs and age-standardized YLL rates per 100,000 people by year and sex. ASIR age-standardized incidence rate, ASPR age-standardized prevalence rate, ASMR age-standardized mortality rate, DALYs disability-adjusted life years, YLDs years lived with disability, YLLs years of life lost.

Fig. 3

Trends in global and China-specific age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs for larynx cancer from 1990 to 2021. (A) Global age-standardized rates of larynx cancer incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs from 1990 to 2021. (B) China-specific age-standardized rates of larynx cancer incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs from 1990 to 2021. ASIR age-standardized incidence rate, ASPR age-standardized prevalence rate, ASMR age-standardized mortality rate, DALYs disability-adjusted life years, YLDs years lived with disability, YLLs years of life lost.

Fig. 4

Joinpoint regression analysis of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs for larynx cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. The analyses include data for both sexes (blue line), females (green line), and males (grey line), with asterisks representing statistically significant changes (p < 0.05). (A): Trends in ASIR of larynx cancer in China for both sexes, females, and males, respectively. (B): Trends in ASPR of larynx cancer in China for both sexes, females, and males, respectively. (C): Trends in ASMR of larynx cancer in China for both sexes, females, and males, respectively. (D): Trends in DALY rates of larynx cancer in China for both sexes, females, and males, respectively. (E): Trends in YLD rates of larynx cancer in China for both sexes, females, and males, respectively. (F): Trends in YLL rates of larynx cancer in China for both sexes, females, and males, respectively. ASIR age-standardized incidence rate, ASPR age-standardized prevalence rate, ASMR age-standardized mortality rate, DALYs disability-adjusted life years, YLDs years lived with disability, YLLs years of life lost.

Fig. 5

Age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of larynx cancer in China. (A) The ASIRs of larynx cancer according to time periods. Each line connects the ASIRs for a 5-year period. (B) The ASIRs of larynx cancer according to birth cohorts. Each line connects the age-specific incidence rates for a 5-year birth cohort. (C) The period-specific incidence rates of larynx cancer according to age groups. Each line connects the period-specific incidence rates for a 5 year age group. (D) The birth cohort-specific incidence rates of larynx cancer according to age groups. Each line connects the birth cohort-specific incidence rates for a 5 year age group. ASIR age-standardized incidence rate.

Fig. 6

Age, period, and cohort effects on the mortality of larynx cancer in China. (A) The ASMRs of larynx cancer according to time periods. Each line connects the ASMRs for a 5 year period. (B) The ASMRs of larynx cancer according to birth cohorts. Each line connects the age-specific mortality rates for a 5 year birth cohort. (C) The period-specific mortality rates of larynx cancer according to age groups. Each line connects the period-specific mortality rates for a 5 year age group. (D) The birth cohort-specific mortality rates of larynx cancer according to age groups. Each line connects the birth cohort-specific mortality rates for a 5 year age group. ASMR age-standardized mortality rate.

Fig. 7

Decomposition analysis of the contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population factors to the incidence and mortality of larynx cancer in China, stratified by gender. Positive values on the x-axis indicate an increase in incidence or mortality, while negative values indicate a decrease. The black dots represent the total impact of these three factors. (A) Contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population factors to the incidence of larynx cancer for both sexes, males, and females. (B) Contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population factors to the mortality of larynx cancer for both sexes, males, and females.

Fig. 8

BAPC analysis predicting the incidence rates of larynx cancer in China by 2030, stratified by gender. (A) Predicted incidence rates for females, showing the estimated rates up to the year 2030 based on BAPC analysis. (B) Predicted incidence rates for males, illustrating the estimated rates up to the year 2030 based on BAPC analysis. BAPC Bayesian age-period-cohort.