Risk Score for Hepatocellular Cancer in Adults Without Viral Hepatitis or Cirrhosis

Abstract

Importance: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is typically detected only at advanced stages when treatment options are limited. Most of the current HCC risk models focus on patients with viral hepatitis or diagnosed cirrhosis or require variables not routinely available in clinical care.

Objective: To identify modifiable HCC risk factors in the general population and to develop a risk score to inform HCC screening and risk-factor modification interventions for high-risk individuals without viral hepatitis or decompensated cirrhosis.

Design, setting, and participants: This cohort study analyzed demographic, clinical, laboratory, and diagnostic data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic health records. Data were divided into development and validation samples. Veterans aged 30 to 95 years were included, and those with hepatitis B or C virus infection, hepatic decompensation, or prevalent HCC were excluded. Patients were followed up until the occurrence of HCC diagnosis, death, or December 31, 2021. A Cox proportional hazards regression model for 10-year risk of HCC was developed and used to create an HCC risk score, and performance in development and validation samples and in patient subgroups was evaluated. One outpatient visit date per person at least 18 months after VA entry, between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2020, was randomly selected and used as the index date for the start of follow-up. Analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024.

Exposures: Age, sex, race and ethnicity, body mass index, liver fibrosis (detected with Fibrosis-4 Index [FIB-4]), diabetes status, smoking status, and alcohol use.

Main outcomes and measures: First HCC diagnosis during follow-up. This information was ascertained from VA national cancer registry topography and histology codes and from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes for the inpatient or outpatient visits.

Results: This study of 6 509 288 veterans included 6 048 917 males (92.9%), with a median (IQR) age of 65 (54-74) years, who identified as being of Hispanic (5.3%), non-Hispanic Black (15.0%), non-Hispanic White (68.9%), or other (4.6%) race and ethnicity. Overall, 15 142 patients (0.2%) developed HCC, 69.5% of whom had FIB-4 of 3.25 or lower at baseline. While FIB-4 was the most important variable, age, sex, race and ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use were also informative. Discrimination in the development sample was better than FIB-4 alone (C statistic, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.82-0.85] vs 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.80]). The HCC risk score performed consistently well in the validation sample and in all subgroups. A FIB-4 threshold of 3.25 would screen 5.0% of the cohort at a cost of 28 false-positives for every true-positive; a model risk score of 58 would screen 4.7% of the cohort at a cost of 23 false-positives for every true-positive.

Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that a multivariable risk score that uses routinely available clinical data outperforms FIB-4 alone in identifying patients at risk of HCC who do not have viral hepatitis or hepatic decompensation at baseline.

Figure.. Ten-Year Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)

Lines were estimated using risk scores obtained from the development sample. Subgroup data points from Kaplan-Meier estimates are shown for a minimum of 10 patients with HCC events and 5 who were at risk for HCC at the end of follow-up. Circle represents multivariable model, and square represents Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) model. Error bars represent 95% CIs. AUD indicates alcohol use disorder; BMI, body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared).