Integrated approach to predicting habitat suitability and evaluating quality variations of Notopterygium franchetii under climate change

Abstract

The impact of climate change on medicinal plants has significantly altered their suitable environments, thereby affecting the quality of herbal medicines. Notopterygium franchetii (N. franchetii), a medicinal plant intricately linked to its natural habitat, exhibits substantial quality variations influenced by the ecological conditions of its native region. In this study, comprehensive field surveys were conducted to gather occurrence records and samples of N. franchetii. The Maxent model and ArcGIS software were employed to predict the suitable habitats of N. franchetii during different time periods. A high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was developed to establish the chemical fingerprints of 21 sample batches. Fourteen common peaks were subjected to cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis. The findings revealed quality variations correlated with their geographic origins, identifying peaks 10, 1, 14, 3, and 4 as crucial for quality differentiation. The study indicates that precipitation, temperature, and altitude significantly influence the distribution of N. franchetii. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitat area for N. franchetii is estimated to be approximately 94,637.33 km². However, projections under three future climate scenarios suggest a declining trend in suitable habitat areas. A quality zoning map of N. franchetii was developed, integrating a correlation model between chemical composition and environmental variables with the spatial analysis and visualization capabilities of ArcGIS. The high-quality regions for N. franchetii are predominantly located in the Gannan, Linxia, Dingxi, Longnan, and Wuwei districts. These research outcomes offer a valuable reference for identifying suitable cultivation areas and assessing the quality of N. franchetii in Gansu Province.

Keywords: Notopterygium franchetii; Climate change; Ecological suitability; MaxEnt model; Quality evaluation.

Fig. 1

(a) Geographic and sampling points of N. franchetii in Gansu Province; (b–g) On-site photographs of N. franchetii. Maps created in ArcGIS 10.3 (https://www.esri.com/zh-cn/arcgis/products/arcgis-desktop/resources).

Fig. 2

(a) ROC curve with AUC value. (ROC: receiver operating characteristic, AUC: area under the curve); (b) Jackknife testing of environmental variables (regularized training gain); (c) Contribution and permutation importance of key environmental variables in the final model; (d) Suitable habitat areas for N. franchetii under current and future climates.

Fig. 3

Response curves of major environmental variables impacting N. franchetii under current climate conditions (a–d).

Fig. 4

Distribution of suitable areas for N. franchetii under current climate. Maps created in ArcGIS 10.3 (https://www.esri.com/zh-cn/arcgis/products/arcgis-desktop/resources).

Fig. 5

N. franchetii suitable area distribution across future climate scenarios: (a–c) 2041–2060 for SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively; (d–f) 2061–2080 for SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. Maps created in ArcGIS 10.3 (https://www.esri.com/zh-cn/arcgis/products/arcgis-desktop/resources).

Fig. 6

(a) HPLC fingerprints of 21 batches N. franchetii and (b) reference fingerprint.

Fig. 7

(a) Cluster analysis, (b) principal component analysis, (c) OPLS-DA score plot, and (d) VIP values for N. franchetii samples.

Fig. 8

Quality zoning map of N. franchetii in Gansu Province. Maps created in ArcGIS 10.3 (https://www.esri.com/zh-cn/arcgis/products/arcgis-desktop/resources).