Resilience Factors Affecting Long-Term Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms in the Aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Among Older Adults

doi:10.1093/geronb/gbae182

. 2025 Mar 12;80(4):gbae182.

doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbae182.

Resilience Factors Affecting Long-Term Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms in the Aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Among Older Adults

Aki Yazawa^{1

2}, Xiaoyu Li³, Koichiro Shiba⁴, Sakurako S Okuzono¹, Hiroyuki Hikichi⁵, Jun Aida⁶, Katsunori Kondo^{7

8}, Ichiro Kawachi¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
² Department of Primary Care and Medical Education, Institute of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
³ Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
⁴ Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
⁵ Division of Public Health, Kitasato University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan.
⁶ Department of Oral Health Promotion, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan.
⁷ Department of Social Preventive Medical Sciences, Center for Preventive Medical Sciences, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan.
⁸ Department of Gerontological Evaluation, Center for Gerontology and Social Science, Research Institute, National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology, Obu, Aichi, Japan.

PMID: 39520149
PMCID: PMC11898207 (available on 2025-11-09)
DOI: 10.1093/geronb/gbae182

Resilience Factors Affecting Long-Term Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms in the Aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Among Older Adults

Aki Yazawa et al. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2025.

. 2025 Mar 12;80(4):gbae182.

doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbae182.

Authors

Aki Yazawa^{1

2}, Xiaoyu Li³, Koichiro Shiba⁴, Sakurako S Okuzono¹, Hiroyuki Hikichi⁵, Jun Aida⁶, Katsunori Kondo^{7

8}, Ichiro Kawachi¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
² Department of Primary Care and Medical Education, Institute of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
³ Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
⁴ Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
⁵ Division of Public Health, Kitasato University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan.
⁶ Department of Oral Health Promotion, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan.
⁷ Department of Social Preventive Medical Sciences, Center for Preventive Medical Sciences, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan.
⁸ Department of Gerontological Evaluation, Center for Gerontology and Social Science, Research Institute, National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology, Obu, Aichi, Japan.

PMID: 39520149
PMCID: PMC11898207 (available on 2025-11-09)
DOI: 10.1093/geronb/gbae182

Abstract

Objectives: We examined long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms among older adults following exposure to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. We further characterized the pre- and post-disaster social relationship factors that predicted membership in each trajectory group.

Methods: Data from 4 time points (including pre-disaster data) were used to analyze the depression trajectories of 2,033 survivors through a group-based trajectory model. Multinomial logistic analysis was used to investigate the social relationship factors (i.e., social interactions with neighbors, social support, social participation, and social cohesion) that predicted membership to each trajectory group.

Results: Five distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms were identified; stably not depressed (12.4%), increased after the disaster (14.2%), decreased after the disaster (8.8%), persistent mild depressive symptoms (28.1%), and persistent severe depressive symptoms (36.5%). Compared to those who were stably not depressed, those who experienced an increase in symptoms were more likely to experience housing damage and not to participate in social activities. Compared to those who were stably mildly depressed, those who experienced a decrease in symptoms had higher pre-disaster social interactions with neighbors as well as higher post-disaster social support. Adults with persistent severe symptoms were physically, psychologically, and socially vulnerable preceding the disaster.

Discussion: The study revealed the heterogeneity of older adults experiencing depressive symptoms in the wake of major disaster. Those who experienced increased symptoms after the disaster showed a chronic rather than temporary rise, while those with pre-disaster depressive symptoms showed sustained symptoms regardless of disaster-related trauma.

Keywords: Depression; Group-based trajectory; Natural disasters; Social capital.

© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

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References

1. Aldrich, D. P. (2012). Building resilience: Social capital in post-disaster recovery. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo13601684.html
1. American Psychiatric Association. (2013). DSM 5 diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (947, p. 947). American Psychiatric Publishing, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596 - DOI
1. Bonanno, G. A., Brewin, C. R., Kaniasty, K., & Greca, A. M. L. (2010). Weighing the costs of disaster: Consequences, risks, and resilience in individuals, families, and communities. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 11(1), 1–49. https://doi.org/10.1177/1529100610387086 - DOI - PubMed
1. Chiao, C., Weng, L. -J., & Botticello, A. L. (2011). Social participation reduces depressive symptoms among older adults: An 18-year longitudinal analysis in Taiwan. BMC Public Health, 11(1), 292. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-11-292 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Coronese, M., Lamperti, F., Keller, K., Chiaromonte, F., & Roventini, A. (2019). Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(43), 21450–21455. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907826116 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

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[1] Aldrich, D. P. (2012). Building resilience: Social capital in post-disaster recovery. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo13601684.html

[2] Aldrich, D. P. (2012). Building resilience: Social capital in post-disaster recovery. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo13601684.html

[3] American Psychiatric Association. (2013). DSM 5 diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (947, p. 947). American Psychiatric Publishing, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596 - DOI

[4] American Psychiatric Association. (2013). DSM 5 diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (947, p. 947). American Psychiatric Publishing, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596 - DOI

[5] Bonanno, G. A., Brewin, C. R., Kaniasty, K., & Greca, A. M. L. (2010). Weighing the costs of disaster: Consequences, risks, and resilience in individuals, families, and communities. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 11(1), 1–49. https://doi.org/10.1177/1529100610387086 - DOI - PubMed

[6] Bonanno, G. A., Brewin, C. R., Kaniasty, K., & Greca, A. M. L. (2010). Weighing the costs of disaster: Consequences, risks, and resilience in individuals, families, and communities. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 11(1), 1–49. https://doi.org/10.1177/1529100610387086 - DOI - PubMed

[7] Chiao, C., Weng, L. -J., & Botticello, A. L. (2011). Social participation reduces depressive symptoms among older adults: An 18-year longitudinal analysis in Taiwan. BMC Public Health, 11(1), 292. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-11-292 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[8] Chiao, C., Weng, L. -J., & Botticello, A. L. (2011). Social participation reduces depressive symptoms among older adults: An 18-year longitudinal analysis in Taiwan. BMC Public Health, 11(1), 292. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-11-292 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[9] Coronese, M., Lamperti, F., Keller, K., Chiaromonte, F., & Roventini, A. (2019). Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(43), 21450–21455. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907826116 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[10] Coronese, M., Lamperti, F., Keller, K., Chiaromonte, F., & Roventini, A. (2019). Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(43), 21450–21455. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907826116 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

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Resilience Factors Affecting Long-Term Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms in the Aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Among Older Adults

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Resilience Factors Affecting Long-Term Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms in the Aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Among Older Adults

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