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. 2024 Oct 25:12:1437432.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1437432. eCollection 2024.

A significant and persistent rise in the global burden of adolescent NAFLD and NASH estimated by BMI

Xiao-Yun Lin #  1   2   3   4 , Jing-Mao Li #  5 , Ling-Yi Huang #  6 , Li-Yan Lin  1   2   3 , Mei-Zhu Hong  7 , Shangeng Weng  8 , Jin-Shui Pan  1   2   3
Affiliations

A significant and persistent rise in the global burden of adolescent NAFLD and NASH estimated by BMI

Xiao-Yun Lin et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Currently, there is a lack of global or even country/regional level data on adolescent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) prevalence. However, an evidenced dose-dependent relationship exists between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of NAFLD. We aim to estimate the global and regional prevalence of adolescent NAFLD and related non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) based on BMI.

Methods: Sigmoidal fitting curves were generated between BMI and the risk of NAFLD/NASH using the data extracted from the NHANES database. With global and regional BMI data from the NCD-RisC database, adolescent NAFLD/NASH prevalence was estimated at the international, regional, and country levels from 1975 to 2016. The prevalence of adolescent NAFLD/NASH from 2017 to 2030 was also forecasted.

Results: The mean NAFLD prevalence was 15.31, and 12.68%, while the mean NASH prevalence was 2.50, and 2.47%, in boys, and girls aged 12-18, respectively. For both boys and girls, NAFLD/NASH prevalence increased with increasing BMI, and age. The global prevalence of adolescent NAFLD/NASH has gradually increased in the period from 1975 to 2016 and will maintain a similar trend between 2017 and 2030. High-income Western Countries had higher adolescent NAFLD/NASH whereas South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa exhibited relatively lower adolescent NAFLD/NASH prevalence. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of NAFLD prevalence in boys ranged from 0.72% (age 18) to 1.16% (age 12) while that in girls ranged from 0.69% (age 18) to 0.92% (age 12). EAPC of NASH prevalence in boys ranged from 1.65% (age 18) to 1.77% (age 12), and in girls from 1.48% (age 18) to 1.68% (age 12).

Conclusion: The adolescent NAFLD/NASH prevalence increases year by year, and its burden varies significantly among different countries and regions. BMI is a precise predictor of NAFLD/NASH prevalence.

Keywords: body mass index; epidemiology; model simulation; non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Algorithm of the study.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Fitting curves model the correlation between BMI and risk of NAFLD/NASH BMI and risk of NAFLD in boys (A) and girls (B); BMI and risk of NASH in boys (C) and girls (D).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimated global prevalence of NAFLD/NASH in adolescents from 1975 to 2030, stratified by age Estimated global prevalence of NAFLD in boys (A) and girls (B); Estimated global prevalence of NASH in boys (C) and girls (D).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Estimated mean of regional NAFLD/NASH prevalence in adolescents from 1975 to 2030 Estimated mean of regional NAFLD prevalence in boys (A) and girls (B); Estimated mean of regional NASH prevalence in boys (C) and girls (D).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Estimated mean prevalence of adolescent NAFLD/NASH at country or region level in 2016 Estimated mean prevalence of adolescent NAFLD at country or region level in boys (A) and girls (B); Estimated mean prevalence of adolescent NASH at country or region level in boys (C) and girls (D).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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