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. 2025 Feb 24;80(2):300-313.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciae485.

Clinical- and Cost-Effectiveness of Liver Disease Staging in Hepatitis C Virus Infection: A Microsimulation Study

Rachel L Epstein  1   2   3 , Sarah Munroe  3 , Lynn E Taylor  4   5 , Patrick R Duryea  4 , Benjamin Buzzee  3 , Tannishtha Pramanick  3 , Jordan J Feld  6 , Dimitri Baptiste  3 , Matthew Carroll  3 , Laurent Castera  7 , Richard K Sterling  8 , Aurielle Thomas  4 , Philip A Chan  9   10 , Benjamin P Linas  1   3
Affiliations

Clinical- and Cost-Effectiveness of Liver Disease Staging in Hepatitis C Virus Infection: A Microsimulation Study

Rachel L Epstein et al. Clin Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Liver disease assessment is a key aspect of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection pre-treatment evaluation but guidelines differ on the optimal testing modality given trade-offs in availability and accuracy. We compared clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of common fibrosis staging strategies.

Methods: We simulated adults with chronic HCV receiving care at US health centers through a lifetime microsimulation across five strategies: (1) no staging or treatment (comparator), (2) indirect serum biomarker testing (Fibrosis-4 index [FIB-4]) only, (3) transient elastography (TE) only, (4) staged approach: FIB-4 for all, TE only for intermediate FIB-4 scores (1.45-3.25), and (5) both tests for all. Outcomes included infections cured, cirrhosis cases, liver-related deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We used literature-informed loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates and 2021 Medicaid perspective and costs.

Results: FIB-4 alone generated the best clinical outcomes: 87.7% cured, 8.7% developed cirrhosis, and 4.6% had liver-related deaths. TE strategies cured 58.5%-76.6%, 16.8%-29.4% developed cirrhosis, and 11.6%-22.6% had liver-related deaths. All TE strategies yielded worse clinical outcomes at higher costs per QALY than FIB-4 only, which had an ICER of $12 869 per QALY gained compared with no staging or treatment. LTFU drove these findings: TE strategies were only cost-effective with no LTFU. In a point-of-care HCV test-and-treat scenario, treatment without any staging was most clinically and cost-effective.

Conclusions: FIB-4 staging alone resulted in optimal clinical outcomes and was cost-effective. Treatment for chronic HCV should not be delayed while awaiting fibrosis staging with TE.

Keywords: APRI; FIB-4; elastography; guidelines; hepatitis C.

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Conflict of interest statement

Potential conflicts of interest. Research grants to institution unrelated to this study: R. K. S.—Gilead, AbbVie, Abbott, Roche, and Zydus; J. J. F.—Abbvie, Cepheid and Gilead. Consulting fees unrelated to this study: J. J. F.—Abbvie and Gilead; L. C.—Boston pharmaceutical, Echosens, Gilead, GSK, Madrigal, MSD, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Sagimet and Siemens Healthineers. L. C. received speaker fees unrelated to this project from Echosens, Gilead, Inventiva, Madrigal and Novo Nordisk. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.

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