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. 2024 Dec;12(12):915-923.
doi: 10.1016/S2213-8587(24)00243-2. Epub 2024 Nov 11.

Trends in the incidence of young-adult-onset diabetes by diabetes type: a multi-national population-based study from an international diabetes consortium

Dianna J Magliano  1 , Lei Chen  2 , Jedidiah I Morton  3 , Agus Salim  4 , Bendix Carstensen  5 , Edward W Gregg  6 , Meda E Pavkov  7 , Martti Arffman  8 , Helen M Colhoun  9 , Kyoung Hwa Ha  10 , Tomoaki Imamura  11 , György Jermendy  12 , Dae Jung Kim  10 , Zoltán Kiss  13 , Didac Mauricio  14 , Stuart J McGurnaghan  9 , Yuichi Nishioka  11 , Sarah H Wild  15 , Klas Winell  16 , Jonathan E Shaw  17
Affiliations

Trends in the incidence of young-adult-onset diabetes by diabetes type: a multi-national population-based study from an international diabetes consortium

Dianna J Magliano et al. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2024 Dec.

Abstract

Background: Population-based incidence data on young-adult-onset type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes are limited. We aimed to examine secular trends in the incidence of diagnosed type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes with an age of onset between 15 and 39 years.

Methods: In this multicountry aggregate data analysis, we assembled eight administrative datasets from high-income jurisdictions and countries (Australia, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Japan, Scotland, South Korea, and Spain [Catalonia]) that had appropriate data available from an international diabetes consortium (GLOBODIAB) describing incidence by diabetes type among people aged 15-39 years from 2000 to 2020. We modelled type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes incidence rates using Poisson regression including age and calendar time by sex.

Findings: During the years 2000-20, there were 349 591 incident diabetes (both types) cases from 346 million person-years of follow-up among people aged 15-39 years. Over time, there was no statistically significant change in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in Hungary and Japan. The incidence of type 1 diabetes significantly increased in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Scotland, South Korea, and Spain, with annual changes ranging from 0·5% to 6·0%. The incidence of type 2 diabetes significantly increased in four of eight jurisdictions (Denmark, Finland, Japan, and South Korea), with annual increases from 2·0% to 8·5%. The magnitude of increase in incidence of type 2 diabetes was greater in Asian than non-Asian jurisdictions. There was no statistically significant change in type 2 diabetes incidence in Australia and Hungary. The incidence of type 2 diabetes significantly decreased in Scotland and Spain, with annual changes of -0·7% and -1·5%, respectively.

Interpretation: There is variability in the trajectory of the incidence of young-adult-onset type 2 diabetes among high-income countries or jurisdictions, with a greater evidence of increase in Asian than non-Asian countries. Evolving trends in the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in young adults call for the ongoing surveillance of diabetes incidence and a greater research focus on this population.

Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Programme, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Programme.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests BC has received stock or stock options from Novo Nordisk. HMC has received payments or honoraria for speakers bureaus from Novo Nordisk; has been supported for participation on an Advisory Board from Novo Nordisk and Bayer AG; and has received stock or stock options from Roche Pharmaceuticals and Bayer AG. ZK is employed by MSD Pharma Hungary, outside the current work. YN received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Sanofi, Daiichi Sankyo, and DeSC Healthcare. DM has received consulting fees from AB Biotics, Amarna, Ferrer, Eli Lilly, MSD, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi; and has received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Abbott, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Gilead, Eli Lilly, Menarini, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi. JES has received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Novo Nordisk, MSD, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and GSK; and has also received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from AstraZeneca, Mylan, Sanofi, Boehringer Ingelheim, Zuellig, and Abbott.

Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:. Trends in age-standardised incidence of diagnosed diabetes for people aged 15–39 years, by jurisdiction, sex, and diabetes type
South Korea is excluded from type 1 diabetes due to insufficient numbers. Shaded areas represent 95% CI.
Figure 2:
Figure 2:. Annual percentage change in the age-standardised incidence of diagnosed diabetes, by jurisdiction, sex, and diabetes type
Bars indicate 95% CI. Blue lines indicate men and boys and red lines indicate women and girls.
Figure 3:
Figure 3:. Incidence rate ratio for typical type 2 diabetes versus typical type 1 diabetes, by sex
Incidence rate ratio is calculated as the incidence of type 2 diabetes divided by the incidence of type 1 diabetes. South Korea is excluded from this plot due to insufficient numbers in the type 1 diabetes group. Shaded areas represent 95% CI.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

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