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Chikungunya Outbreak Risks after the 2014 Outbreak, Dominican Republic

Gideon Loevinsohn et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2024 Dec.

Abstract

The 2014 chikungunya outbreak in the Dominican Republic resulted in intense local transmission, with high postoutbreak seroprevalence. The resulting population immunity will likely minimize risk for another large outbreak through 2035, but changes in population behavior or environmental conditions or emergence of different virus strains could lead to increased transmission.

Keywords: CHIKV; Caribbean; Dominican Republic; arboviruses; chikungunya; epidemiology; outbreak; vector-borne infections; viruses.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Chikungunya seroprevalence by year of birth in study of chikungunya outbreak risks after the 2014 outbreak, Dominican Republic. Blue band represents the 95% CI for pooled seroprevalence, which combined data from acute febrile illness and serosurvey cohorts. Estimates were obtained using kernel-weighted local polynomial smoothing weighted by the size of each birth cohort. AFI, acute febrile illness.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projected chikungunya population immunity and Reff in study of chikungunya outbreak risks after the 2014 outbreak, Dominican Republic. A) Estimated population immunity from 2012 through 2045 using a simulated population parameterized to the current population seroprevalence (red dot). Solid line represent point estimates and shading 95% CIs. Changes in population immunity over time reflect the introduction of new susceptible persons through births and decrease in immune persons through deaths. B) Projected changes in effective reproductive number over time calculated from the basic reproduction number R0 and population immunity. Solid line represents change in Reff and shading 95% CIs, based on the simulated proportion of the immune population. The solid red horizontal line at Reff = 1 represents the threshold for sustained transmission; values above this line indicate Reff >1, suggesting potential for ongoing transmission, wheras values below this line indicate Reff <1, suggesting a decline in transmission. Reff, effective reproduction number.
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