Susceptibility of Mammals to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: A Qualitative Risk Assessment From the Belgian Perspective

Abstract

Aims: The world experienced a huge number of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in birds, which could represent one of the largest registered epidemics of infectious disease in food-producing animals. Therefore, mammals, including humans, are continuously exposed to HPAI viruses leading to sporadic and sometimes unusual mammal infections. The aim of this paper is to assess the risk of crossing the avian/mammalian species barrier by the currently circulating HPAI viruses, focusing on the epidemiological situation of Belgium, a representative country for Western Europe.

Methods and results: Information on transmission pathways and species susceptibility, based on the experimental and epidemiological data, was reviewed and weighted to assess the risk of mammal infection with HPAI A(H5N1) viruses of the circulating clade 2.3.4.4b. This risk is defined as the likelihood of mammal infection by birds crossed by the clinical consequences of this infection for this animal. From the Belgian perspective, it is concluded that this risk remains 'low' to 'moderate' for captive/domestic mammal species. However, this risk was categorised as 'high' for certain species, i.e. mammals that have the opportunity to have frequent direct or indirect close contacts with infected (dead) birds, such as wild felids, wild mustelids, foxes and wild marine carnivore mammals. For some mammal species, the uncertainty associated with the assessment remains high due to an ever-changing situation.

Conclusions: The longer the virus will continue to circulate in wildlife/the environment the stronger the probability of contact between infected birds and mammals will become. This will increase the related risk of viral adaptation for efficient transmission between mammal, posing concerns for public health. Regular reassessments based on the field and experimental data are therefore necessary to implement and adapt risk-based mitigation measures. This will require continuous monitoring of avian influenza viruses in both birds and mammals as well as sharing of sequence data.

Keywords: epidemiology; influenza A virus; mammals; public health; risk assessment; transmission.