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. 2024 Nov 29;24(1):3329.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20796-z.

Global, regional, and national pancreatitis burden and health inequality of pancreatitis from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction from 2020 to 2034

Affiliations

Global, regional, and national pancreatitis burden and health inequality of pancreatitis from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction from 2020 to 2034

Yu Wen et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Pancreatitis is a digestive system disease that imposes a significant burden on society. However, there is a lack of comprehensive research on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of pancreatitis, as well as on health inequalities and future trends.

Methods: Pancreatitis burden data, including the number and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 (GBD 2019). SDI and HDI were used to analyze the influence of societal development on the burden of pancreatitis in the population. Additionally, the Gini coefficient and the Concentration index were used to assess health inequalities in the burden of pancreatitis. Global population data from 1990 to 2034 was obtained from WHO. Based on the population data and pancreatitis burden data, a prediction model of the burden was constructed to calculate the number and ASR of incidence, prevalence, deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs from 2019 to 2034 using the BAPC package and the Nordpred package.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, there has been a decreasing trend in the ASR of incidence, prevalence, deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs in pancreatitis. However, despite this decline, the number of cases has been on the rise. Furthermore, pancreatitis imposes a higher burden on males in comparison to females, and there exists a negative correlation between pancreatitis burden and both the Social Development Index (SDI) and the Human Development Index (HDI). Additionally, health inequalities have progressively worsened globally between 1990 and 2019, particularly concerning the burden of pancreatitis in countries with low Social Development Index (SDI). Looking to the future, it is projected that the number of deaths and new cases will continue to increase from 2020 to 2034.

Conclusions: Pancreatitis remains a mounting worldwide burden. In order to alleviate this challenge, preventive strategies should focus on males and middle-aged or older individuals, specifically in countries with a low SDI. Pancreatitis is expected to predominantly impact Eastern Europe, characterized by a high ASR of incidence, and Asia, boasting a substantial population.

Keywords: Death; Disability-adjusted life-years; Health inequality; Incidence; Pancreatitis; Prevalence; The years of life lost; Years lived with disability.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The incidence of acute pancreatitis wordwide from 1990 to 2019. (A) The number of incidence. (B) ASR of incidence among different genders. (C) ASR of incidence among different age groups. (D) The map of annual change of ASR of incidence wordwide
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The death of pancreatitis wordwide from 1990 to 2019. (A) The number of death. (B) ASR of death among different genders. (C) ASR of death among different age groups. (D) The map of annual change of ASR of death wordwide
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The DALYs of pancreatitis wordwide from 1990 to 2019. (A) The number of DALYs. (B) ASR of DALYs among different genders. (C) ASR of DALYs among different age groups. (D) The map of annual change of ASR of DALYs wordwide
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The correlation of globally ASR incidence among pancreatitis, liver cancer, pancreatic cancer and lung cancer
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The correlation of SDI and ASR in incidence, prevalence, death, YLLs, YLDs and DALYs. at the level of regions from 1990 to 2019. Each category of points represents a region, and the SDI information for each region from 1990 to 2019, spanning a period of 30 years, is shown on the horizontal axis of the graph, while the corresponding burden of pancreatitis is shown on the vertical axis. The information of the fitted curve and its test (correlation coefficient R and P-value) is shown in the graph. (A) The correlation between SDI and ASR of incidence at the regional level from 1990 to 2019. (B) The correlation between SDI and ASR of prevalence at the regional level from 1990 to 2019. (C) The correlation between SDI and ASR of death at the regional level from 1990 to 2019. (D) The correlation between SDI and ASR of DALYs at the regional level from 1990 to 2019. (E) The correlation between SDI and ASR of YLLs at the regional level from 1990 to 2019. (F)The correlation between SDI and ASR of YLDs at the regional level from 1990 to 2019
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
The correlation of SDI and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) (between 1990 to 2019) in incidence, prevalence, death, YLLs, YLDs and DALYs at the level of countries. The SDI information for each region is shown on the horizontal axis of the graph, while the corresponding EAPC of pancreatitis burden is shown on the vertical axis. Each point represents a country, and the size of the point represents the range of quantities. The information of the fitted curve and its test (correlation coefficient R and P-value) is shown in the graph. (A) The correlation of SDI and EAPC (between 1990 to 2019) in incidence and death at the level of countries. Left: The correlation of SDI and EAPC of ASIR (ASR of incidence), Right: The correlation of SDI and EAPC of ASDR (ASR of death). (B) The correlation of SDI and EAPC (between 1990 to 2019) in prevalence and YLDs at the level of countries. Left: The correlation of SDI and EAPC of ASPR (ASR of prevalence),Right: The correlation of SDI and EAPC of ASYLDsR (ASR of YLDs). (C) The correlation of SDI and EAPC (between 1990 to 2019) in YLLs and DALYs at the level of countries. Left: The correlation of SDI and EAPC of ASYLLsR (ASR of YLLs), Right: The correlation of SDI and EAPC of ASDALYsR (ASR of DALYs)
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
The correlation of HDI and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) (between 1990 to 2019) in incidence, prevalence, death, YLLs, YLDs and DALYs at the level of countries. The HDI information for each region is shown on the horizontal axis of the graph, while the corresponding EAPC of pancreatitis burden is shown on the vertical axis. Each point represents a country, and the size of the point represents the range of quantities. The information of the fitted curve and its test (correlation coefficient R and P-value) is shown in the graph. (A) The correlation of HDI and EAPC (between 1990 to 2019) in incidence and death at the level of countries. Left: The correlation of HDI and EAPC of ASIR (ASR of incidence), Right: The correlation of HDI and EAPC of ASDR (ASR of death). (B) The correlation of HDI and EAPC (between 1990 to 2019) in prevalence and DALYs at the level of countries. Left: The correlation of HDI and EAPC of ASPR (ASR of prevalence), Right: The correlation of HDI and EAPC of ASDALYsR (ASR of DALYs). (C) The correlation of HDI and EAPC (between 1990 to 2019) in YLLs and YLDs at the level of countries. Left: The correlation of HDI and EAPC of ASYLLsR (ASR of YLLs), Right: The correlation of HDI and EAPC of ASYLDsR (ASR of YLDs)
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
The distribution inequalities of DALYs worldwide. (A) The map of age-standardized DALYs rate in 1990. (B) Gini coefficient of age-standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 based on SDI. (C) The map of age-standardized DALYs rate in 2019. (D) Concentration index of age-standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 based on SDI
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
The prediction of incidence in pancreatitis from 2020 to 2034 all over the world. (A) Prediction of age-standardized incidence rates for the entire population. (B) The prediction of age-standardized death rate in female. (C) The prediction of age-standardized incidence rate in male. (D) Prediction of the total number of incidence for the entire population
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
The prediction of death in pancreatitis from 2020 to 2034. (A) Prediction of age-standardized death rates for the entire population. (B) The prediction of age-standardized death rate in female. (C) The prediction of age-standardized death rate in male. (D) Prediction of the total number of deaths for the entire population

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