How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination

Abstract

Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.

Keywords: Immunisation; Impact; Mathematical modelling; Outbreak; Vaccination; Vaccine.

Fig. 1

Timeline of outbreak included detection and outbreak response vaccination campaign. Red vertical bars indicate incidence or similar. Blue dotted lines indicate vaccination coverage or doses given. Diamonds indicate key points along the timeline and colour indicates phases where green = investigative phase, yellow = scale-up phase, blue = control phase. Black text indicates potential modelling outputs at each stage