Integrated explainable machine learning and multi-omics analysis for survival prediction in cancer with immunotherapy response

Abstract

To demonstrate the efficacy of machine learning models in predicting mortality in melanoma cancer, we developed an interpretability model for better understanding the survival prediction of cancer. To this end, the optimal features were identified, ten different machine learning models were utilized to predict mortality across various datasets. Then we have utilized the important features identified by those machines learning methods to construct a new model named NKECLR to forecast mortality of patient with cancer. To explicitly clarify the model's decision-making process and uncover novel findings, an interpretable technique incorporating machine learning and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), as well as LIME, has been employed, and four genes EPGN, PHF11, RBM34, and ZFP36 were identified from those machine learning(ML). The experimental analysis conducted on training and validation datasets demonstrated that the proposed model has a good performance com- pared to existing methods with AUC value 81.8%, and 79.3%, respectively. Moreover, when combined our NKECLR with PD-L1, PD-1, and CTLA-4 the AUC value was 83%0. Finally, these findings have been applied to comprehend the response of drugs and immunotherapy. Our research introduced an innovative predictive NKECLR model utilizing natural killer(NK) cell marker genes for cohorts with melanoma cancer. The NKECLR model can effectively predict the survival of melanoma cancer cohorts and treatment results, revealing distinct immune cell infiltration in the high-risk group.

Keywords: Bioinformatic; Cell–cell communication; Immunotherapy; Machine leaning; NK cell marker genes; Pan-cancer; Single-cell RNA-sequencing.