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. 2024 Dec 20;5(4):103414.
doi: 10.1016/j.xpro.2024.103414. Epub 2024 Dec 10.

Protocol for making forecasts exogenous in the International Futures model

José Solórzano  1 , Barry B Hughes  2 , Mohammod T Irfan  2 , Yutang Xiong  2 , Stellah Kwasi  2 , Abdelrahman Ibrahim  2 , Solikhakhon Makhmatova  2 , Taylor Hanna  2 , Jonathan D Moyer  3
Affiliations

Protocol for making forecasts exogenous in the International Futures model

José Solórzano et al. STAR Protoc. .

Abstract

Understanding future dynamics and trends in human and natural development is foundational for creating appropriate policy strategies to address planetary and development challenges. Here, we present a protocol for adding exogenous series for key variables, such as the shared socioeconomic pathways, to the database of the International Futures (IFs) integrated model. We describe steps for installing IFs and the SQLiteStudio software, understanding the IFs database, importing series, running the model, and extracting results. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Moyer.1.

Keywords: Computer sciences; Earth sciences; Health Sciences.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Figure 1
Figure 1
Interface of a Data Table in the (Single Series) IFsHistSeries.db in IFs
Figure 2
Figure 2
Interface of a Metadata Table in the (Single Series) DataDict.db in IFs
Figure 3
Figure 3
Interface of a Country Translation Long Table from IFs.db in IFs
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Figure 4
IFs Setup License Agreement Interface
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Figure 5
IFs Setup Destination Location Interface
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Figure 6
IFs Setup Installation Interface
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Figure 7
IFs Shortcut Icon
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Figure 8
SQLiteStudio Download Interface
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Figure 9
SQLiteStudio Setup Installation Directory Interface
Figure 10
Figure 10
SQLiteStudio License Agreement Interface
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Figure 11
Import Excel Data interface in IFs
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Figure 12
Interface of a File Loading Form in IFs
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Figure 13
Interface to View Imported Data in IFs
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Figure 14
Data Dictionary Values Interface
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Figure 15
Data Vetting Interface in IFs
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Figure 16
Exogenous Variables Table Interface in the IFsExogenousVar.db in IFs
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Figure 17
sce file Creation in the Scenario Analysis Interface in IFs
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Figure 18
Interface to Change Values for Exogenous series created in IFs
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Figure 19
Interface for Saving .sce file in IFs
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Figure 20
Loading Scenario Component in the Scenario Analysis Interface in IFs
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Figure 21
Scenario Management Interface for .run files in IFs
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Figure 22
Saved Run files in the Flexible Display Interface in IFs
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Figure 23
Displaying Results in a Table Interface and Exporting Values to an Excel Spreadsheet from IFs
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Moyer J.D. A double-edged sword into a plowshare: Analyzing geopolitical implications of alternative socioeconomic development pathways. One Earth. 2024;7:336–347. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.002. - DOI
    1. Hughes B.B. Elsevier; 2019. Exploring and Understanding International Futures: Building a Global Model System.
    1. Hedden S., Hughes B.B., Rothman D.S., Markle A.J., Maweni J., Mayaki I.A. Ending Hunger in Africa: The Elimination of Hunger and Food Insecurity on the African Continent by 2025: Conditions for Success. Pardee Center for International Futures. 2016
    1. Verhagen W., Bohl D.K., Cannon M., Pulido A., Pirzadeh A., Nott I., Moyer J.D. USAID RFS and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures; 2021. The Future of Food Security in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
    1. Moyer J.D. Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions. Sci. Rep. 2023;13 doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-42782-y. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

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