The Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in Adolescents and Young Adults in China: A Secondary Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Background: Early-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) is an increasingly serious public health issue, particularly in China. This study aimed to analyze the characteristics of disease burden, secular trend, and attributable risk factors of early-onset T2D in China. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, we analyzed the age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality rates of T2D among individuals aged 15 to 39 years in China from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to analyze secular trend, calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC). We also examined changes in the proportion of early-onset T2D within the total T2D burden and its attributable risk factors. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the ASR of incidence of early-onset T2D in China increased from 140.20 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 89.14 to 204.74] to 315.97 (95% UI: 226.75 to 417.55) per 100,000, with an AAPC of 2.67% (95% CI: 2.60% to 2.75%, P < 0.001). DALYs rose from 116.29 (95% UI: 78.51 to 167.05) to 267.47 (95% UI: 171.08 to 387.38) per 100,000, with an AAPC of 2.75% (95% CI: 2.64% to 2.87%, P < 0.001). Mortality rates slightly decreased from 0.30 (95% UI: 0.24 to 0.38) to 0.28 (95% UI: 0.23 to 0.34) per 100,000, with an AAPC of -0.22% (95% CI: -0.33% to -0.11%, P < 0.001). The 15 to 19 years age group showed the fastest increase in incidence (AAPC: 4.08%, 95% CI: 3.93% to 4.29%, P < 0.001). The burden was consistently higher and increased more rapidly among males compared to females. The proportion of early-onset T2D within the total T2D burden fluctuated but remained higher than global levels. In 2021, high body mass index (BMI) was the primary attributable risk factor for DALYs of early-onset T2D (59.85%, 95% UI: 33.54% to 76.65%), and its contribution increased substantially from 40.08% (95% UI: 20.71% to 55.79%) in 1990, followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (14.77%, 95% UI: 8.24% to 21.24%) and diet high in red meat (9.33%, 95% UI: -1.42% to 20.06%). Conclusion: The disease burden of early-onset T2D in China is rapidly increasing, particularly among younger populations and males. Despite a slight decrease in mortality rates, the continued rapid increase in incidence and DALYs indicates a need for strengthened prevention and management strategies, especially interventions targeting younger age groups. High BMI and environmental pollution emerge as primary risk factors and should be prioritized in future interventions.

Fig. 1.

Secular trends of disease burden for early-onset T2D in China and globally by age groups and sex from 1990 to 2021.

Fig. 2.

Sex differences in the disease burden of early-onset T2D in China and globally by age groups from 1990 to 2021. The difference is calculated as follows: the age-specific rate in males minus that in females, with a difference >0 meaning males have higher rates.

Fig. 3.

Sex-specific secular trends in proportions of early-onset T2D disease burden within total T2D burden in China and globally, 1990–2021.

Fig. 4.

Proportions of attributable risk factors for early-onset T2D and T2D DALYs in China, 2021.

Fig. 5.

Temporal trends for proportions of the top 5 attributable risk factors of DALYs for early-onset T2D in China, 1990–2021.