Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 Feb;31(1):e14258.
doi: 10.1111/jep.14258.

Effect of Excess Mortality on Longevity During the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia

Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi  1 , Hafiz T A Khan  2   3
Affiliations

Effect of Excess Mortality on Longevity During the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia

Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi et al. J Eval Clin Pract. 2025 Feb.

Abstract

Background: Throughout the twentieth century and beyond, a global trend of declining mortality rates and an increase in life expectancies was noted until the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A reduction in life expectancies was observed in most countries, including South Asia, during 2020 and 2021 due to the excess mortality caused by the pandemic.

Objective: This study aims to examine the change in life expectancy in selected South Asian countries and the relative change in age- and sex-specific mortality rates over time due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to that, we further examined the effect of a pandemic on a short-term forecast of life expectancy.

Data and methods: Estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates of seven South Asian countries were utilised from the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP 2022). Changes in life expectancies are estimated using standard life table estimation techniques. To estimate the relative change in age- and sex-specific mortality levels and change in mortality forecasts as a result of the pandemic, we applied the Lee-Carter method.

Results: The application of the Lee-Carter model revealed age- and sex-specific variations in mortality improvements, reflecting heightened mortality rates within the region. This decline in mortality improvement is highly observed for both sexes in Pakistan, followed by India and Bangladesh. Populations exhibiting slower rates of improvement throughout their lifespan demonstrated minimal alterations attributable to the pandemic's impact. Comparative life expectancy forecasts indicate a slower rise in post-pandemic life expectancy at birth and in remaining life expectancies at older ages among most of these populations.

Conclusion: These findings highlight the pandemic's profound impact on mortality dynamics, emphasising the need for targeted interventions to mitigate its long-term effects on population health and longevity.

Keywords: COVID‐19 pandemic; Lee–Carter method; developing countries; longevity.

PubMed Disclaimer

Similar articles

See all similar articles

References

    1. T. P. Velavan and C. G. Meyer, “Covid‐19: A PCR‐Defined Pandemic,” International Journal of Infectious Diseases 103 (2021): 278–279.
    1. World Health Organization, “World Health Organization Coronavirus (COVID‐19) Dashboard,” WHO, Geneva, Switzerland, 2022, https://covid19.who.int.
    1. J. Schöley, J. M. Aburto, I. Kashnitsky, et al., “Life Expectancy Changes Since COVID‐19,” Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 12 (2022): 1649–1659.
    1. United Nations, World Population Prospects 2022 (Geneva: Population Division – United Nations, 2022).
    1. S. Preston, P. Heuveline, and M. Guillot, Demography‐Measuring and Modeling Population Processes (Hoboken: Blackwell Publishing, 2001).

LinkOut - more resources