The emergence of medical futures studies uncovers medicine and healthcare's untapped potential

Abstract

Analyzing the future of medicine and healthcare, especially during the rise of digital health and artificial intelligence, should rely on established futures methods that the discipline of futures studies has been using for decades. By employing such methods, healthcare professionals, policymakers and patient leaders could better navigate the complexities of modern healthcare, anticipate emerging challenges, and shape a future that is not just awaited but actively constructed.

Fig. 1. A schematic framework of all the potential sources used during environmental scanning.

The process involves scanning the sources, analyzing and synthesizing the data, trends, and examples identified from the sources that lead to decisions and strategies.

Fig. 2. An example of a futures wheel.

Primary and secondary consequences surround the central event, statement, or issue.

Fig. 3. An outline of the major elements of horizon scanning.

While it can be used to find trends, it also helps identify weak signals of change that might happen on longer time frames, as well as wild cards which are low-probability, high impact events of disruption.

Fig. 4. An outline of the practice of scenario analysis with the fairy tale exercise.

It helps create extreme scenarios, as well as the ideal or optimal, the practically achievable future. Through backcasting, it can help identify those steps that are required to have a higher chance of leading to the desired future.