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Meta-Analysis
. 2025 Jan;45(1):e16128.
doi: 10.1111/liv.16218.

MASLD Is Associated With an Increased Long-Term Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Alessandro Mantovani  1 , Riccardo Morandin  1 , Elena Sani  1 , Veronica Fiorio  1 , Emigela Shtembari  1 , Stefano Bonapace  2 , Salvatore Petta  3 , Stergios A Polyzos  4 , Christopher D Byrne  5 , Giovanni Targher  6   7
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

MASLD Is Associated With an Increased Long-Term Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Alessandro Mantovani et al. Liver Int. 2025 Jan.

Abstract

Background: Studies have reported an association between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and an increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the magnitude of the risk and whether this risk varies with the severity of MASLD remains uncertain.

Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched three large electronic databases using predefined keywords to identify cohort studies (published up to 30 September 2024) in which MASLD was diagnosed by liver biopsy, imaging methods, International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes, or blood-based scores. The primary outcome was the occurrence of AF based on ICD codes, medical records, or electrocardiograms. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects modelling.

Results: We identified 16 retrospective cohort studies with aggregate data on ~19.5 million individuals followed for a median of 7.2 years. MASLD was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing incident AF (random-effects hazard ratio 1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.32; I2 = 92%). This risk did not appear to further increase with the severity of liver fibrosis (n = 3 studies; random-effects hazard ratio 1.22, 95% CI 1.18-1.26; I2 = 10%). The risk of AF remained significant even after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, Type 2 diabetes or other cardiometabolic risk factors. Sensitivity analyses did not modify these findings. The funnel plot and Egger's test showed no significant publication bias.

Conclusions: This updated and comprehensive meta-analysis provides evidence that MASLD is significantly associated with an increased long-term risk of developing incident AF. Further research is required to better decipher the link between MASLD and increased AF incidence.

Keywords: MASLD; NAFLD; arrhythmias; atrial fibrillation; metabolic dysfunction‐associated steatotic liver disease; non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease.

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References

    1. European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), and European Association for the Study of Obesity (EASO), “EASL‐EASD‐EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Metabolic Dysfunction‐Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD),” Journal of Hepatology 81, no. 3 (2024): 492–542.
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