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. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):30758.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-80906-0.

Construction and validation of a nomogram model to predict bronchiolitis Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children

Shuping Xiong #  1   2 , Lihua Lin #  3   1 , Qihong Chen  3   1 , Jie Peng  3   1 , Yungang Yang  4   5   6
Affiliations

Construction and validation of a nomogram model to predict bronchiolitis Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children

Shuping Xiong et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

After the cancellation of COVID-19 epidemic control measures in 2023, cases of pediatric bronchiolitis caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) have been reported successively, with some children experiencing residual bronchiolitis obliterans (BO). Currently, the diagnosis of bronchiolitis Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) primarily relies on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). To establish a predictive model for bronchiolitis MPP, a retrospective analysis was conducted. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. The nomogram model was constructed in the training cohort. Finally, the differential, calibration, and clinical applicability of the prediction model were evaluated using both the training and validation cohorts. Logistic stepwise regression analysis identified age, atopy, wheezing, hypoxemia, and pleural effusion as independent predictors of bronchiolitis MPP. These factors were used to construct a nomogram model. This nomogram model serves as a useful tool for predicting the risk of bronchiolitis MPP, which may facilitate individualized early intervention.

Keywords: Mycoplasma pneumoniae; Atopy; Bronchiolitis; Nomogram.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Ethics approval and consent to participate: The studies involving humans were approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Xiamen University Affiliated First Hospital (institutional review board numbers: 2023-094). The studies were conducted in accordance with local legislation and institutional requirements. Written informed consent for participation in this study was provided by the participants’ legal guardians/next of kin.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flowchart of enrollment and exclusion of subjects.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
A nomogram model for predicting bronchiolitis MMP.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
ROC curve of the nomogram model.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Calibration curve of the nomogram model. (a) Training cohort. (b) The validation cohort.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The decision curve analysis plots of the nomogram. (a) The training cohort. (b) The validation cohort.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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