Temporal trends in disability adjusted life year and mortality for colorectal cancer attributable to a high red meat diet in China from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

Background: High red meat consumption is a main modifiable risk factor for colorectal cancer mortality (CRC), but its attributable disease burden remains unclear in China. We aimed to analyze the temporal trends in CRC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high red meat consumption in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the disease burden in the next 15 years.

Methods: Data was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). In addition, the age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on CRC mortality. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was utilized to predict the disease burden in 2022-2036. We also compared the CRC burden attributed to high red meat in China with 204 countries worldwide.

Results: The results showed that the number of CRC deaths in China due to high red meat consumption increased nearly 2.5 times, from 17,608 (95% UI: -3 to 36,613) in 1990 to 43,580 (95% UI: -16 to 92,083) in 2021. Male CRC deaths exhibited a more pronounced increase, rising from 9,800 in 1990 to 27,600 in 2021. Additionally, the number of DALYs increased from 518,213 (95% UI: -105,107 to 1,074,174) in 1990 to 1,091,788 (95% UI: -509 to 2,295,779) in 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis confirmed that the AAPC in ASDR and ASMR was - 0.20 (95% CI: -0.40 ∼ 0.00) and - 0.30 (95% CI: -0.40 ~ -0.10). When age, period, and cohort effects were examined as the reference group, the risk of CRC was found to increase with age. However, women experienced a marked decline in both period and cohort effects compared to men.

Conclusions: Compared to global levels, the burden in China is heavier. In terms of mortality or DALY standardized rates, Chinese women show a similar downward trend to the overall trend, while Chinese men show a striking upward trend. This study provides valuable insights into enhancing CRC prevention and improving dietary patterns in China.

Keywords: 1990–2021; China; Colorectal cancer; Global burden of disease; High red meat diet.

Fig. 1

Comparison of the burden of CRC caused by a high red meat diet in different age groups and genders in China in 2021. DALYs, Disability-Adjusted Life Years

Fig. 2

Comparison of full-age cases and age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs among men and women in China from 1990 to 2021. DALYs, Disability-Adjusted Life Years

Fig. 3

Temporal trends of CRC ASDR and ASMR attributed to a diet high in red meat in China by joinpoint regression, 1990–2021. (* means p-values < 0.05 and significant results) Data was provided for overall (a), male (c), and female (e) ASDRs and overall (b), male (d), and female (f) ASMRs. CRC, colorectal cancer; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rates; ASDR, age-standardized DALYs rates; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years

Fig. 4

Age-period-cohort analysis of CRC caused by a diet high in red meat in China. (A) local drift, longitudinal age curves, period RR, and cohort RR overall. (B) local drift, longitudinal age curves, period RR, and cohort RR for males. (C) local drift, longitudinal age curves, period RR, and cohort RR for females. CRC, colorectal cancer

Fig. 5

Predicted trends of CRC ASMR and ASDR among men and women caused by a diet high in red meat in China over the next 15 years. Data was provided for male (A), female (B) ASDRs and male (C), and female (D) ASMRs. CRC, colorectal cancer; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rates; ASDR, age-standardized DALYs rates; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years

Fig. 6

CMR (A), CDR (B), ASDR (C), and ASMR (D) of CRC attributable to a high red meat diet in 204 countries and territories in 2021. CRC, colorectal cancer; CMR, Crude mortality rate; CDR, crude DALY rate, ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate, ASDR, age-standardized DALYs; DALY, Disability-Adjusted Life Year