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. 2025 Jan;28(1):e70000.
doi: 10.1111/ele.70000.

A Natural Disaster Exacerbates and Redistributes Disease Risk Among Free-Ranging Macaques by Altering Social Structure

Alba Motes-Rodrigo  1   2 , Gregory F Albery  3   4 , Josue E Negron-Del Valle  5 , Daniel Philips  6 ; Cayo Biobank Research Unit; Michael L Platt  7   8   9 , Lauren J N Brent  10 , Camille Testard  11   12
Affiliations

A Natural Disaster Exacerbates and Redistributes Disease Risk Among Free-Ranging Macaques by Altering Social Structure

Alba Motes-Rodrigo et al. Ecol Lett. 2025 Jan.

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, with severe implications for ecosystem dynamics. A key behavioural mechanism whereby animals may cope with such events is by altering their social structure, which in turn could influence epidemic risk. However, how and to what extent natural disasters affect disease risk via changes in sociality remains unexplored in animal populations. By simulating disease spread in free-living rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) before and after a hurricane, we demonstrate doubled pathogen transmission rates up to 5 years following the disaster, equivalent to an increase in pathogen infectivity from 10% to 20%. Moreover, the hurricane redistributed the risk of infection across the population by exacerbating sex-related differences. Overall, we demonstrate that natural disasters can amplify and redistribute epidemic risk in animals via changes in sociality. These observations provide unexpected further mechanisms by which extreme weather events can threaten wildlife health, population viability and spillover to humans.

Keywords: disease ecology; epidemic simulation; natural disaster; rhesus macaques.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests

MLP is a scientific advisory board member, consultant, and/or co-founder of Blue Horizons International, NeuroFlow, Amplio, Cogwear Technologies, Burgeon Labs, and Glassview, and receives research funding from AIIR Consulting, the SEB Group, Mars Inc, Slalom Inc, the Lefkort Family Research Foundation, Sisu Capital, and Benjamin Franklin Technology Partners. All other authors declare no competing interests.

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