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. 2024 Nov 30;21(12):1607.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph21121607.

The Impact of Disease X on Potential Travelers' Travel Decision

Robertico Croes  1 , Jeong-Yeol Park  1 , Kenneth Alexander  2 , Chaithanya Renduchintala  1 , Frank Badu-Baiden  1
Affiliations

The Impact of Disease X on Potential Travelers' Travel Decision

Robertico Croes et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

This study used ANCOVA models to investigate how pandemic characteristics-spreading speed, severity, and vaccination requirements-affect travel intentions. The results reveal that these factors explain 31.7% of the variance in travel decisions, with disease-spreading speed and severity being the most significant determinants. While vaccination requirements are relevant, they play a secondary role compared to the immediate threat of disease characteristics. The interaction effects between these factors further demonstrate their combined impact on travel reluctance. Demographic variables, such as gender and the presence of children, also influence decisions in specific contexts. These findings contribute to the understanding of risk perception during health crises, reinforcing the role of perceived severity in shaping cautious travel behavior. Practical implications for the tourism industry include the need for transparent communication, tailored health protocols, and demographic-specific marketing strategies. Future research should explore broader factors and adopt longitudinal approaches to capture evolving travel intentions during pandemics.

Keywords: ANCOVA; Disease X; Orlando; pandemic; severity; speed; spread; travel intention.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The research model.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Example scenario.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Interaction effect of spreading speed and severity of illness.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Interaction effect of spreading speed and vaccination requirement.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Interaction effect of spreading speed and severity of illness.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Interaction effect of spreading speed and vaccination requirement.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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