Melanoma detection, treatment, survival, and mortality through year 2 of the pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the timely diagnosis and treatment of many cancers, including melanoma, the fifth most common cancer in the U.S. This study aimed to quantify the disruption and recovery of melanoma detection, treatment, survival, and mortality during the pandemic by analyzing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program from 2000 to 2021. Our epidemiological analysis found that melanoma incidence initially dropped by 14.8% (95% CI: - 17.2 to - 12.4) in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic projections. Although incidence rates substantially recovered by 2021, an estimated 10,274 patients (95% CI: - 12,824 to - 7,724) remained undiagnosed due to pandemic-related disruptions. Time-to-treatment and 1-year survival were mostly consistent with pre-pandemic trends, while melanoma-specific mortality modestly declined by 4.5% (95% CI: - 14.6 to 5.6) in 2021, though this was statistically non-significant. These findings suggest that healthcare systems adapted to the challenges posed by the pandemic, maintaining essential cancer services. However, the significant drop in melanoma diagnoses likely contributed to the observed reduction in mortality. Thus, re-establishing care for patients missed during the pandemic will be crucial to preventing a future increase in advanced-stage melanoma and related deaths.

Keywords: COVID-19; Incidence; Melanoma; Mortality; Survival.

Fig. 1

Disruption and recovery of melanoma incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic

Fig. 2

Observed and expected mean time to treatment during year 1 (2020) and year 2 (2021) of the pandemic

Fig. 3

Observed and expected mortality among patients with metastatic melanoma who die within year of diagnosis