Unraveling the Causal Relationship Between Non-Communicable Diseases, Obesity, and Health Expenditure: Insights from the Toda-Yamamoto Approach

Abstract

Background/objectives: Understanding the relationship between non-communicable diseases (NCDs), obesity, and health expenditure is crucial for developing effective public health policies, particularly in light of the rising global burden of NCDs and obesity. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the causal relationships between NCDs, obesity, and health expenditure in Turkiye.

Methods: Data were collected from the World Health Organization and Our World in Data. Time series econometric analysis was performed using the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach. A model was designed to regularly capture causal relationships to ensure robust and consistent findings.

Results: The analysis revealed four significant results. First, a causal relationship was observed between obesity and the prevalence of NCDs, indicating that higher obesity rates lead to an increase in NCDs within the population. Second, obesity had a direct impact on health expenditures, as rising obesity levels drove up healthcare costs. Third, the burden of NCDs contributed to increased health expenditure. Finally, the combined effect of obesity and NCDs on health expenditure was statistically significant at the 0.05 level.

Conclusions: These results highlight the need for policymakers to develop more effective strategies to address both obesity and NCDs. Recommended policies include the implementation of public health programs aimed at preventing obesity, strengthening early diagnosis and treatment methods, and increasing awareness campaigns focused on NCDs. These measures would be crucial steps in improving public health and controlling healthcare expenditures.

Keywords: NCD prevalence dynamics; causal health expenditure analysis; obesity-driven healthcare costs.

Figure 1

Global disease burden by cause between 1990 and 2019.

Figure 2

Trends in indicators in Türkiye (1990–2019).